Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese
This podcast takes a deep dive into the market-moving events to cut through the noise and help you identify what really matters. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, and is a product of the Carson Investment Research Team.
The information included herein is for informational purposes and is intended for use by advisors only, and should not be copied, reproduced, or re-distributed without the consent of CWM, LLC. Carson Partners offers investment advisory services through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Coaching and CWM, LLC are separate but affiliated companies and wholly-owned subsidiaries of Carson Group Holdings, LLC. Carson Coaching does not provide advisory services.
Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese
The Fed Comes Bearing Gifts (Ep. 166)
A rare split is opening inside the Federal Reserve. Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, and Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Wealth, dig into what that tension really means as growth projections move higher and rate cuts keep coming. They break down the widening gap between market expectations and the Fed’s own outlook, the mixed signals coming from the latest dot plot, and what dissenting votes reveal about how policymakers are reading inflation and a softening labor market. At the same time, they look to the areas gaining strength, including cyclicals, global markets, commodities and the latest AI rotation, to understand how a divided Fed is shaping positioning as investors look ahead to 2026.
Key Takeaways:
• The Fed is diverging internally: The dot plots and dissents show widening disagreement on how aggressively to cut
• Markets are pricing a different path: Traders expect more easing than the Fed, especially beyond 2026
• Growth projections are rising: The Fed now sees stronger 2025–2026 GDP despite ongoing cuts
• Labor-market signals are weakening: Falling quits and slowing hiring increase pressure on policymakers
• Cyclical strength continues: Industrials, materials, and developed international markets are pushing the rally forward
Jump to:
0:00 - Cold Open, Holidays, And Setup
2:45 - AI Leadership Rotates And Market Breadth
8:50 - Cyclicals Lead, Global Rally Builds
14:40 - Europe, Developed Markets, And Industrials
20:55 - IPOs, Sentiment, And Bull Market Signals
27:00 - The Fed Cuts: Dots, Dissent, And Markets
35:20 -Neutral Rate, Long-Run Inflation, And 2026
41:50 - Press Conference Takeaways And Labor Risks
48:10 - Gold Breakout And Commodities Pulse
53:30 - Labor Market: JOLTS, Quits, And Wages
Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick
Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en
Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
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