Social Hour With Josh Schafer and Talmon Smith (Social Hour Ep. 4) Artwork

Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

This podcast takes a deep dive into the market-moving events to cut through the noise and help you identify what really matters. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, and is a product of the Carson Investment Research Team.

The information included herein is for informational purposes and is intended for use by advisors only, and should not be copied, reproduced, or re-distributed without the consent of CWM, LLC. Carson Partners offers investment advisory services through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Coaching and CWM, LLC are separate but affiliated companies and wholly-owned subsidiaries of Carson Group Holdings, LLC. Carson Coaching does not provide advisory services.

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Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

Social Hour With Josh Schafer and Talmon Smith (Social Hour Ep. 4)

April 28, 2026 • Carson Investment Research

0:00 | 1:02:37

The Social Hour is back for its 4th episode — and this one covered a lot of ground. Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are joined by two sharp voices from the financial media world: Josh Schafer, Newsletter Editor and Investing Personality at Barron's Investor Circle, and Talmon Smith, Economics Reporter at The New York Times.

Fair warning: Ryan's 140-pound Great Pyrenees may or may not have been snoring in the background, Talmon showed up fashionably late on Central Time, and somehow the conversation ended with a tease about something big coming to Omaha. But in between? Plenty of substance.

They dig into semiconductors ripping 18 days in a row, the Intel comeback story nobody saw coming, and why AI infrastructure names from chips to optical networking to data center builders keep defying expectations. Josh breaks down what's actually driving the earnings surprise story, why FOMO is back in the market, and what the tailwinds (or lack thereof) look like for the back half of the year. Talmon brings the macro and human side of things, connecting the dots between surging corporate margins, collapsing consumer sentiment, and what affordability really means for everyday Americans. Sonu drops some eye-opening services inflation data that reframes the whole "inflation is solved" narrative.

Key Takeaways:

Semis on a historic run: The SOX up 18 consecutive days with broad breadth, not just Nvidia
Intel's surprise: Earnings estimates doubled overnight and the turnaround thesis is gaining traction
AI infrastructure trade alive and well: Telecom ETF names like Iridium and Lumentum up 100%+ YTD
Earnings boom: 26% EPS growth across 25% of S&P 500 reporters and this isn't just Big Tech
Consumer sentiment vs. stock market: Why both can be true at the same time
Services inflation running hot: Personal care, dental, and vehicle rentals all well above target
The Fed's hands are tied: Labor market steady, inflation sticky, no clear path to cuts
GDP watch: Real GDP print incoming, brace for noise and focus on nominal

Josh Schafer and Talmon Smith are not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by these individuals may not be representative of CWM, LLC.

Jump to:

0:00 Disclosures and Social Hour Kickoff

1:15 Meet Barron's Josh Schafer

6:30 Semiconductors Rip on AI Buildout

10:20 Intel's Surprise Turnaround Narrative

14:10 Powell Drama Fades as Stocks Rally

18:35 Tech Layoffs and the Capex Squeeze

22:10 Earnings Boom Meets Inflation Pain

25:40 Talmon Smith on Affordability and Sentiment

37:50 The Fed's Dilemma and the 2% Target

52:40 GDP Angst and Market Narrative Confusion