Still Searching For Buffett (FvF Ep. 185)

In Episode 185 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are recording live from Omaha at PodPony's studio during Carson's Q2 board meeting. They make a pilgrimage to the McDonald's on 40th and Dodge that Warren Buffett reportedly frequents. They got the scoop on his usual order, but did Buffett himself show up? You'll have to listen to find out!

On the markets side, Ryan breaks down why the current secular bull market started in 2013 and what history says happens after you're up 100%, which is exactly where this bull market now stands from the October 2022 lows. The S&P just hit its 10th all-time high of the year, forward profit margins just reached a record 15.2%, and the data on "sell in May" may surprise you. Ryan's numbers show May has been up 12 of the last 13 years.

The episode also covers the oil picture with WTI back near $100 and the Strait of Hormuz situation still unresolved, the consumer sentiment disconnect between how people feel and what retail sales are actually showing, and the Fed outlook heading into tomorrow's decision. Sonu explains why Kevin Walsh is leaning on trimmed mean PCE to justify rate cuts, and Ryan calls him out for putting everyone to sleep. Gold gets a candid look too, still in a long-term bull market but stretched after a massive run, with real rate pressure creating some short-term headwinds.

Key Takeaways:

• The S&P 500 just hit its 10th all-time high of the year, and the bull market has officially crossed the 100% gain mark from the October 2022 lows.
• Forward profit margins just reached a record 15.2%, the highest ever recorded.
• Ryan makes the case that the current secular bull market began in 2013 and explains what history says comes next.
• Sell in May is largely a myth. May has been up 12 of the last 13 years.
• WTI is back near $100 and the Strait of Hormuz situation has not resolved the way markets hoped.
• Consumer sentiment remains near historic lows, but retail sales tell a very different story.
• Gold is still in a long-term bull market but faces short-term headwinds from real rate pressure after an extended run.

Jump to:

0:00 - Live from Omaha Setup 

1:59 - All-Time Highs and Oil Shock 

6:10 - Why Sentiment Feels So Low 

11:27 - Board Meeting and Real Money 

13:22 - Will AI Kill Investing Alpha? 

16:09 - When Secular Bull Markets Start 

21:00 - Global Breakouts and Gold Debate 

22:36 - Rates, Inflation, and the Fed Shift 

26:49 - Trimmed Mean PCE Explained 

29:49 - Sell in May: Stats Check 

32:58 - Bull Market Up 100% — Now What? 

36:22 - McDonald's Hunt for Buffett 

41:33 - Wrap-Up and Disclosures

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com