Talking 'Sell in May' with Jeff Hirsch (FvF Ep. 186)

In Episode 186 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are joined by a genuine industry legend, Jeff Hirsch, Editor-in-Chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac, now celebrating its 60th year. And yes, Jeff is also turning 60 this month.

The conversation starts where May always takes us. "Sell in May and Go Away." Jeff immediately sets the record straight. It's not about selling everything on May 1. It's about repositioning, spring cleaning your portfolio, tightening stops, and getting ready for the historically weakest six months of the year. He walks through how MACD signals layered on seasonal patterns sharpen entries and exits, which sectors shine during the weak months, and why the Nasdaq's growing weight in the S&P 500 has stretched that weak window further into June.

From there, the episode covers the Trump presidential cycle pattern, the sixth-year tailwinds, and how the midterm-year setup historically creates one of the best buying opportunities on the calendar. Jeff makes a candid near-term call on gold, makes the case for utilities and staples during the weak months, and explains why the mutual fund October 31 deadline is the true engine behind all of it.

Oh, and Sonu's birthday is May 4. So officially: reposition on Sonu's birthday, go sober on Ryan's.

Key Takeaways:

• "Sell in May" is widely misunderstood. The real strategy is repositioning, not abandoning the market entirely.
• Jeff uses MACD crossover signals layered on seasonal patterns to time entries (on or after October 1) and exits (on or after April 1 for the S&P 500, June 1 for Nasdaq).
• The Trump presidential cycle pattern, the sixth year of the decade, and the sixth year of the presidency all point toward a strong year. Jeff's target range is 8% to 12%, with 15% possible if geopolitical risks resolve.
• Utilities (XLU) and consumer staples are Jeff's preferred sector plays for the weak six months, with added tailwinds from data center electricity demand and dividends.
• Gold looks like a near-term top after a massive run. Jeff is watching for a seasonal re-entry opportunity in July or August.
• The real driver behind October seasonality is the mutual fund October 31 fiscal year-end deadline, which creates institutional churn, window dressing, and the conditions for the classic "bear killer" October bounce.

Jump to:

0:00 — Welcome and Meet Jeff Hirsch

1:37 — Sell in May Reframed

6:25 — MACD Signals and Seasonality

10:55 — Sector Plays for the Weak Months

14:55 — The Trump Cycle and Midterm Choppiness

22:45 — Why Seasonal Patterns Exist

35:05 — International Ideas and Cash Choices

44:05 — Dead Indicators and the 401(k) Flow Shift

50:10 — Gold, Grains, Options, and Calendar Quirks

53:05 — Where to Follow Jeff and Wrap

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Connect with Jeff:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeffrey-hirsch-8285358/

• X: https://x.com/AlmanacTrader?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Transcript

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SPEAKER_02 0:02

Welcome to the Facts versus Feelings Podcast. I'm your host, Ryan Dieter, and I'm joined by my co-host, Sonovarke. Cutting through the noise each quick, Ryan Dieter, Chief Market Strategist. And Sonovarke's Chief Macro Strategist. Taking out the board and helping investors focus on what really matters. And we are back, episode 186 of Carson's Facts versus Feelings. Ryan and Sonu, as always, we are joined by a very special guest, a close friend, uh a legend in the industry, Mr. Jeff Hirsch over at Almanac Trader. I know we like titles and stuff around here, Jeff, so we have to start with that. What is your official title?

SPEAKER_01 0:49

I am the editor-in-chief of the stock traders almanac. And I refer to myself as son of legends since my father who started this thing 60 years ago is the real legend. 60 years ago. Wow. Six zero.

SPEAKER_02 1:03

So I was going through, I mean, this is for the YouTube channel. There's the two 2024, there's the 2025 stock trader almac, and always right on my desk is a 2026. I'm sure I have others. I'm not sure where I stashed them, but yeah, you always send those to me. I always look forward to that. Sometimes you write me a little note like how much you look for look up to me and appreciate me and blah blah blah. Let's see. Ryan, you are truly the greatest person I've ever met. Sign Jeff. You wrote something, I can't read it. Anyway, but uh, you're you're the man. We are so excited. Sell and may go away, so much talk about. Uh Sonu, how do we want to start this uh this conversation?

SPEAKER_00 1:37

Actually, let's start here. You guys have put uh Ryan's put this out for years. I'm sure you you do, Jeff. Like sell and may quite hasn't worked, right? And it's not just about May. I guess it's made through October for our listeners, right? Sell and it hasn't worked. No, uh I'm saying if sell and may hasn't worked, right? Like it's you know, the markets rallied last couple of years, made through you know, September, right?

SPEAKER_01 2:00

I it's because people's perception of it is is wrong. Oh, it really sit down, Sonu. You were just okay.

SPEAKER_00 2:11

I'm just looking at Ryan's numbers. I just say every time Ryan puts a number the last 10 years it's been pretty stolen.

SPEAKER_01 2:16

Not really. Yeah, exactly.

SPEAKER_00 2:18

Exactly. But that's not a pattern. So is oh okay, so let's start there. What makes a pattern? Like the last 10 years, sell in May hasn't quite worked. So do you throw it out or do you still say, you know what, it's just a 10-year anomaly?

SPEAKER_01 2:33

You don't throw it out. You look at the longer history, we compare things over different time frames. 10 years is starting to get into the realm of statistically significant, especially in the work that we do. But we look back to 1950, 1949, the post-World War II era. We look to 71 when NASDAQ started. We we like 21 years because it's a couple of cycles, it's an odd number. You don't get any 50 percent, you know, up 10, down 10, you know. Um frame we use a lot. But you also have to take the framework that it's not sell in May and go away. It's repositioned in May and realize that May through October are the worst six months of the year, and not necessarily this down period where the market's going to go down. And nobody ever said May 1st. Um strong on on the the midterm year charts that we're all looking at. We can look at a couple of charts if you want to, if you want to throw something up there. But um, the other thing is people forget you got to buy in October and get your portfolio sober before you sell in May and go away. And we use MACD, a technical indicator, um, overlaid with the seasonal pattern to improve the gains. And you know, I sent you guys a couple of charts. Um can you what's MACD? MACD is a a technical indicator invented by the uh late great Jerry Appel. It stands for moving average convergence divergence, which is a combination of uh uh a few different exponential moving averages, not a simple moving average, an exponential moving average puts more weights on the most recent data point. So you take uh the the standard one that all the technicians use is 12269. It's a the difference between a 12-day exponential moving average and a 26-day excuse me, it can be any period. We use the daily daily close. There's a difference between the 12 and 26 day exponential moving average, and then you plot the nine-day uh exponential moving average of the difference, and you get this crossover. It shows up on uh a lot of charts. We use the original research from um Jerry Appel with the 817.9 on the buy side in the October period when we're looking to get in. We start looking uh for a crossover around October 1st, honor after October 1st versus a sell honor after April 2nd. Excuse me, April 1st, the first trading day. I'm not sure why I said second there, but and NASDAQ goes for um eight months into June. So we've seen a lot of these um recent sell, you know, you talked about sell and may not work in the last 10 years. Well, we got some great uh sell signals, you know, MACD's in in like mid-July when you see that mid-summer peak.

SPEAKER_00 5:18

So things should be.

SPEAKER_01 5:25

Last year as well, we got a little uh, you know, um that that late uh like one-day correction. It was like last day of July, um first day of August. But you can see the impact of what you know you're you're you're uh cueing on there with um Celema not being as as uh pronounced as it used to be, with the impact of the Nasdaq dragging that seasonality out a little bit further into June. There's a lot of that tech weight in in the SP. So we like to reposition in in May or begin to. So between our uh Down SP sell signal on or after April 1st and the NASDAQ one, whenever it comes after June 1st, we start to reposition. We you know, kind of limit you know, new longs, tighten up stops, get rid of losers, and and you know, sort of do some spring cleaning uh in the portfolio as opposed to going away. Everyone likes everyone has the rhyme.

SPEAKER_00 6:23

Right, yeah, so basically they say reposition in May, assuming you've gone sober in October.

SPEAKER_01 6:31

Assuming. Uh there's also sector seasonality, you know, and we put out a recent chart um on uh which I I sent you on um we're six month sectors. One of the ones we like here is utilities, you know, the XLU. Okay. We also put out a uh a basket of stocks, some of the bigger ones, a little bit uh focused on nuclear and and dividends and and and you know cleaner energy, like you know, um some of the big uh utility stocks because utilities have done very well during the week months. They they benefit from um you know the week months for equities, they benefit from uh uh the air conditioning um season. I mean, I know everyone talks about heating for for energy prices going up, but I don't know. Last I checked, it took a lot of my electric bill was was uh a lot higher in in July here in it just keeps going up. So um for all of us. And then you get the the benefit of the the macro trend with the uh data center uh electro sure electric deeds for the for the world these days, and there's a dividend there. Um so you know that's sort of the the story there with some other sectors that we like to that apply to staples too, just real quick, or just utilities. Staples are in there, another another solid uh uh um sector in the worst months.

SPEAKER_02 7:49

So let me jump in, Jeff. Good stuff. Let's put the chart up because I love this one. Uh, president or it says Trump presidency seasonal cycle pattern. We can put that one up, Podpony. Um under President Trump, I know it's relatively small sample size, and this is skewed because of March 2020 and last March, but whatever. Um, under President Trump, you tend to have an earlier low. How much do you put in that? Again, people on the YouTube channel can see this chart. It's like boom, perfect. Once again, it happened. Um, do you put that in over, say, the potential weakness of these next six months? How do you square that circle? And the sample size, right? Like small samples around.

SPEAKER_01 8:22

I squared, I mean, I also sent you the chart where I lay it, you know, right across the the the midterm year pattern, um the seasonal pattern. So you can see that.

SPEAKER_02 8:30

Let's put that one up now then, too. Yeah, let's put that one up then. Uh Connor. All of them are there.

SPEAKER_01 8:35

Yeah. That's where the rubber meets the road. That's that's a sixty-four thousand dollar question here. Um I put a lot of weight on it right now because of what we're going on, but I also, you know, throw it at uh through at you the um the the post the before and after crisis chart where we see this this initial bounce off of the the crisis low, um, which we had. And then there's this this sort of sideways thing. And that you can you can track the news flow yourself. Um and we've heard heard it even the past, you know, the past two days are a perfect example with you know, you get shots fired and then votes being escorted out, and and you know, I I'm of the belief that you know it's gonna take some time for there to be some resolution there. Um and I think that along with the midterms, uh you know, the the politicking heating up is going to keep a little bit of a lid on it. I don't suspect we'll get anything, you know, further downside new lows, but I think it's gonna keep us bouncing along choppy sidewal sideways uh through you know the the weak summer months towards the towards the midterms. Unless, of course, you know, things get resolved with um Iran and the and the Strait of Hormuz, uh, then we're off to the races. So I square it with, you know, the fact that um there's a a lot of headline risk out there. Uh and we've got the the earnings strength, we've got uh the technical strength, uh you know the Fed's probably not doing anything. Uh uh we've seen you know loan rates hit hit highs recently. So to me, that that just you know gets us going sideways. I still have a uh a bullish forecast for the year we put out in December for eight to twelve percent year over year um on average. Uh but the amazing thing with that that I know it's a small cycle, but um, you know, I gotta tell you, on March 23rd, I would sit in there scrolling through the news.

SPEAKER_02 10:31

Which by the way, March 23rd is Michael Batnik's birthday. We're all connected. It's a small one. I just know that because that was the low in 2020. So I just remember Michael Batnick's birthday. So shout out to Mike and Animal Spirits. And the low on March. Good man. He's a good man.

SPEAKER_01 10:44

So I saw you know, last year during the the uh tariff tumble, uh, you had to get Truth Social on your, you know, on your phone and and have the the post coming through to keep track of what's going on. So I'm reading the news and boom, there's the post, five days pause or whatever, whatever it was there. Yeah, yeah. Like, wait a second, this guy he keeps shaking stuff up in Q1 and then letting it ride and working the deal, you know, through Q2, Q3. So I went in there and I just dropped the five years, you know, the first term and 25 in our into our software, and there's the chart that you see, and it's it's uncanny, you know. And Ryan, you know, we've talked about it over the years, you know, like the the reason these these patterns exist is one of the roots of behavioral finance. It's human beings are creatures of habit. I mean, you guys record this show the same time, you know, every day, every week. We pay our bills the same time every month. We get up and go to work the same times. You know, you get that 2:30 in the afternoon sort of a dip in the market when everyone goes and gets a coffee. You got institutions driving um the seasonal behavior with the quarterly system. And the reason Sal and May and October phobia and and you know buying on October work is the mutual fund deadline, October 31st. That's what really drives it. You know, there's there's a uh a psychological bullishness that comes in at the end of the year where people are getting a lot of money and bonuses. But you know, and I discussed this with Steve Eisman on on his show, um, and he jumped in and and and kind of proved the point for me that, you know, there's this window dressing that happens, you know. October 31st, the funds for, you know, with the investment act, the the the 40 act, they have to reconcile their accounting and make transactions for year-end distributions, the 10 months ending October 31st, the previous year's 10 months, and then the calendar year. And it creates this churn. There's also the window dressing where they've they get rid of their losers, even though they should probably be buying them then. So they they they pump up their portfolio. And this creates that that Octoberphobia, that that churn that we see with September being the worst month of the year and October being the the bargain month, the the bear killer, um, which is what Neil wrote about in 69. And you know, back to the Trump cycle, that's just his personality, his habit is to take care of the dirty work early in the year. And uh, I mean, and if you'll if you'll if you'll maybe you you'll chime in on this, it's kind of like the four-year cycle in and of itself, where the first two years tend to be rougher. Yeah, the presidents take care of the least savory um you know policy initiatives first, and then they want to prime the pump so that they can get reelected or the party gets re-elected. I think it's a similar maybe microcosm of that.

SPEAKER_02 13:30

So let me layer on to that because this, I mean, I love talking to this. Is Sony's kind of boring, Sony always wants to talk about like CPI to my eyes glaze over and like Sony? I don't care about CPI.

SPEAKER_01 13:39

I got I got CPI in my talk. I know we can talk inflation, I know, I know.

SPEAKER_02 13:45

You just mute me for a second here. So I mean midterm years, we all know okay, they're week to week. But second time I'm gonna put this year six, year six to presidents have been really strong historically, and also years that end in six have been really strong this year. Um, yeah, these are just little nuggets, they're kind of fun. But the one that got me again coming into this year, Jeff, was just how you know, if it's president's second term, year six, I think it's up like the last 50 years. There's only been like I think four or five of them, you would know before I would. But you know, is there something to that? Because that was one thing I've said. We we we actually, by the way, we have a 12 to 15 percent target. We've had that all year, yeah, better than average because the macro stuff we look at, we think it's a little bit better, and people give it credit and look at earnings, and we think we're we're very comfortable with that 12 to 15. That out of your 12s, your low end or your high and 12s are high end. So we'll see, maybe we can hit something around there. What are you talking about? Yeah, the the the sixes, year six of a president, and your six that end in six are good. What do you want to say?

SPEAKER_01 14:36

That was really, you know, one of the things that we were looking at. I mean, the chart that you you put up there before with the the the Trump's you know taco trade cycle on there with the midterm year, the sixth year of the presidency is on that. And then you you know, you you wisely mentioned the sixth year of the decade, which has some we don't put as much weight on the decennial cycle, but there's a few years that do. So we have an aggregate cycle. People do composites. This is all years since 49.

SPEAKER_02 15:01

Okay.

SPEAKER_01 15:01

The sixth year of the decade, and the the um the midterm year and the sixth year of the presidency is in there. So the the aggregate cycle is all midterm years, which is like the eight percent in there with with all years and the sixth year, and then the sixth year of the presidency up there, there's your 15% right there on my chart, man. I mean, so um that's our upper end. We give a little bit interest less probability to, but um, you know, we could do 15 to 20 if if this war gets uh you know resolved and the earnings continue to come in, and you know, I mean it's all part of that super boom forecast and outlook I put out there a bunch of years ago, which I know you you remember. Oh, yeah. Um where this this AI how much hate did you get for that, by the way? When did you say that?

SPEAKER_02 15:47

When when was that?

SPEAKER_01 15:48

That was first came out in May of 2010.

SPEAKER_02 15:52

Oh my god, you must have been yeah, I was bullish at the shop I was at back then. I mean, we didn't have social media like then, but I just remember when the market's going up. I literally was I made a name for myself in 2010, 2011, 12, 13. The market kept going up. They say, Ryan, you still bullish? I'd say yes. They say, good, because we can't find another bull. I'd go on TV all the time back then because no one. Well, maybe talking to Jeff too. Maybe we were the two out there. Um, but anyway, go ahead, Jeff. I cut you off, but I think that's fascinating.

SPEAKER_01 16:16

No, that's all right. And again, in October 2011, I remember uh sitting in a Ridholz's conference back then, and I think it was Aaron Task, right? Oh wow, he was he was he was hosted a panel, moderating a panel, good guy. And he said a show of hands, and it was some room in the city where everyone's at, you know, the tables with waters and stuff on there. Show of hands, any bulls in the audience. My hand goes up. I'm like the only one. I think there were two other ones, maybe. Um, but you know, yeah, we got some hate. Uh our buddy Barry Rid Holtz, his headline was WTF. With my and then he then he did the math and he realized that you know the projection was basically a 4.9% compounded annual growth rate from the close of 99 to the close of 25. And it went ahead and and and the the number I put on there was a a a six-fold move, a 500% move. So it was Dow 38,820 by 2025. We beat that, we're there. Oh, yeah. Then we've re we've recalibrated it to that October uh 2011 low, which is probably kind of like the 1980, August 82, um, you know, uh, you know, equal sort of ending secular bear, not the not the ultimate low, where from there will probably get us up to 62,430 is uh is our is our new target for the um the boom.

SPEAKER_00 17:39

We won't complain. Bring in bring in international stocks into this. How do you think about international? Because obviously they talk presidential cycle. Imagine okay, US stocks and things like that, right? Uh how do you think about international now? Even even for something like sell in May, right? You spoke about utilities, international tends to be more value heavy, dividend heavy kind of stuff. I mean things like that. So it's always opportunity costs, right? It's not going to, oh, I'm gonna sell and go to cash, right?

SPEAKER_01 18:09

Oh, it could be that sure. I mean, you could you you can pull a little Warren Buffett. I mean, cash gives you time to think and and you know, cash is a position. We do we do hold on to some. We should we put it into some of the shorter term bonds, just you know, the bond ETS. But you know, in all honesty, the the US equity market, I mean, there are some different seasonal patterns. Um, like you know, in the Far East, there there's a a Chinese New Year uh impact there. But a lot of the equities, international equities, do track some of the the the seasonal behavior from from the US markets. However, you know, there's been a uh a pull away from um you know US uh being the the only place to be. Last year we noticed that. And we got into some of the bigger um European uh stock funds, the IDV, uh EFE, some of those, you know, the ones that got like the Siemens and the big, you know, uh uh European conglomerates. European conglomerates, yeah. You know, it just the the more stodgy solid, like you were saying, dividend payers. So and those positions have done well for us. But on a seasonal trade, you know, the US is still kind of driving the the big pattern, uh except for you know some of the more um you know cultural impacts uh in different parts of the world, especially you know, Chinese New Year's I mentioned in Hong Kong and and and um Oh you know, let me sorry, uh reminds me, year of the horse, 1978.

SPEAKER_02 19:39

You are dealing with two years of the horse. Are you year of the horse, but the older one? What what are you if I can ask Jeff? What I'm uh I'm as old as the almanac, bro. Okay, we'll just leave it there. Oh, you already get it.

SPEAKER_01 19:48

I'm gonna be 60 in 21 days. Okay, okay.

SPEAKER_02 19:51

Well, we'll talk birthday. We're gonna we're gonna go off. We'll get to your birthday. So my birthday, you mentioned earlier how the market bottoms around the Halloween. I said, no, it's actually my birthday, October 28th, the most bullish day of the year, not a coincidence. I probably can't say that compliance get passed.

SPEAKER_01 20:02

I think October 23rd was my father's birthday at another good though. Hey, you're gonna be able to do that. We're gonna talk about that.

SPEAKER_02 20:08

I want to I want to talk about your dad a lot. We'll get there. Uh, but we had a birthday in the house. A lot of people know this. Sonu Vargeese um is officially one year older than me, even though we're the same year. Jeff, for like five months, he's the old guy. So I get to rip his ass every time. He's the old guy. I get to let the old guy know. Um, so how was the birthday, Sonu? What'd you do now that you're older than me? Could you get a did you get a cane? Did you get a wheelchair? Are you you feeling okay?

SPEAKER_00 20:29

Yeah. I know. My my daughter is up sick at home today. So, you know. Okay. Like, I think she needs a cane. Okay. I have nine-year-old twins, and so yeah, the one is sick, the other wishes probably they were sick so they could stay at home too. No, I had chocolate cake on my birthday. I mean, that's what we do. There you go. And you know, May 4th. I feel like so many people are like, oh, I wish I had a birthday on May 4th. I was like, but now, based on what Jeff says, like, sell on Sonar's birthday. Yes, reposition, reposition on Sonus birthday and go sober on Ryan's work's birthday.

SPEAKER_02 21:02

I love it. I love it. Sell on Sonos. I like it. So so Jeff, that's this is neat because you are almost 60, and the company is almost 60. So your dad had a busy year, apparently. Is that how that worked?

SPEAKER_01 21:15

Well, you know what? Interesting, he went out on his own and incorporated the company while my mother was pregnant with me. Um incorporated in February, and I was born in May. Okay. And, you know, um, it was a gutsy move. Uh yeah. But for a lot of reasons. It seemed to uh it seemed to have worked out in the long run. Um you know, God bless my mom. She was uh she was a saint. Do you have siblings? I do. They're they're a little older. My mother uh was married before her first husband passed away years ago, and my father adopted my brother and sister when when they got married in in in the 63 before I was born.

SPEAKER_00 21:54

Are you the only one doing the almanac or are they involved too?

SPEAKER_01 21:58

My brother chimes in and roots. For me, uh, he has a few comments on LinkedIn. My sister always likes everything too, but yeah, they're uh they're really old. They're good though.

SPEAKER_02 22:11

They were they were they were they they raised me, they helped raise me. There you go. Let me let me let me talk about dad for a second. Did dad um so he's obviously running the company, growing it. Did he like coach Little League with you? Did he what was something about dad that maybe you haven't talked about on a podcast before you remember?

SPEAKER_01 22:25

Well, I mean, he was not the athletic guy, even though he was a big guy, um, he used to wince when he came to my games and I would, you know, crush people in the cross or or football. Um, so I didn't get that from him, but uh he was a he was a composer, he was a musician. He wrote a musical which I tried to produce. Um actually during Gulf War I, you know, when we're watching all those uh uh you know uh uh Schwarzkopf and those guys didn't know. Yeah, CNN and oh yeah. He was writing this musical about the elephant man, and you know, I was I just started back with the you know, moved in with the family. I was living back in the house underneath his piano, listening to him compose this. So uh it was called Merrick and Melissa, sort of uh Phantom of the Opera love story. But you know, um he was a he he liked the joke, man. He used to play pranks on me all the time. It just to see the look on my face just cracked him up. So he uh, you know, he was a smart man.

SPEAKER_02 23:28

When did he pass away again? I forget. When was it?

SPEAKER_01 23:30

Uh 21, just after his 98th birthday. We all celebrated 98. Wow.

SPEAKER_02 23:35

Wow. Wow. Yeah, true true legend. I know, I know I never officially met him. You always said that I would have liked him. I'm sure I love you. You're the man, I'm sure the apple didn't fall too much. He would have decided, but yeah, we would have had fun. Um, yeah, that's that's that's neat. Um what what else? A little sidetracked there, but that's important. Happy birthday. When's your birthday again? When sorry, you said it when is it? May 26th. May 26th. Oh, happy, happy early early birthday. Yeah, happy early birthday.

SPEAKER_00 23:58

All right, so what else we want to talk about? Actually, since you've you you've looked at some of the history for this, I'm curious if you've seen seasonal patterns that used to work, and however you define it, and now you're like, you know what, this doesn't work. This is dead as a dodo. This is done.

SPEAKER_01 24:13

Yes. Um, my father called that the indicator graveyard. Okay, okay. That died a long time ago. That was one of the ones uh initially. And the other thing that we've we've seen is you know the uh the monthly cash flows, the the used to be the monthly five-day bulge, and and we've seen that shift. So back in in the in the 90s, um I was working on the book. I was working for my father full-time. We were we were working on the next edition of the almanac, and we were looking at that the cash flows, it's on page like 140. Uh, I need a copy of this.

SPEAKER_00 24:58

I need a copy of that. And yeah, I'll we'll fix that. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 25:04

You can see the the change in the pattern there. And um so what happened was we're sitting there looking, and this was one of the the uh one of the cycles I used to work on when I was a kid with um this little red ruler that I this little tiny ruler that I keep at my desk, used to go down the Baron's lab pages with a red pen and update um the uh you know the underlying upticks and then run the numbers uh using an adding machine and graph paper. So um what we saw was all of a sudden, instead of being the last day of the month, the first four days of of the month being the monthly five-day bulge, we saw this mid-month spike coming in and the 11th and 12th, uh, 10th, 11th, and 12th trading days, and we had this uh realization that it was payroll deductions going into 401ks, the bi-monthly or every two weeks deductions, and then so around the 15, 16, 17, they're on the time they're about. And then, you know, when mutual fund managers get money, they have to by law put it into the stock market. They can only have a certain amount of cash, like five percent. So that's one of the ones that shifted. It's a big that was a big shift, but every month has its own personality with you know what days are stronger, like beginning of August is really weak, and that the by Ryan's birthday, that turn of the month there from October to November, the strongest turn of the month trade.

SPEAKER_00 26:42

Interesting. Why do you think that shifted? That that middle one, like the four you mentioned the money covering.

SPEAKER_01 26:58

Oh, right. Okay, that's what changed it. Got it. Yeah, institutionals. Interesting. Institutional movement of money.

SPEAKER_02 27:03

Uh I was just glancing at it, and I mean, it's neat how you probably know every single page of that book. How many books have you how many almanac traders have you sold the last 60 years? Do you guys have a total on that? It's like one and a half million in counting.

SPEAKER_00 27:15

Wow. Awesome. Amazing. Congratulations. Yeah, yeah. We have some big years.

SPEAKER_01 27:19

I mean, we used to do 30, 40,000 a year, and then um the just before the the top uh just the top in 2000, we sold like 77,000 in one year. Interesting.

SPEAKER_00 27:31

Well, are you using AI now to find patterns, things like that? And I'm curious, like where the I'm sure there's a fine line between there's an actual pattern, but this is some random artifact.

SPEAKER_01 27:42

I'm a little dubious of AI to find the patterns. I do use it to look up uh some research and just get some instead of what I would Google search or go through a book and read, I I'll look for what happened when and this. And I I'll use it for some editing and proofing and and you know, just freshening things up a little bit. But we haven't, I mean, we have a little bit of our own AI built into our own software where we query it um for for patterns. Uh I mean that's what I mean. The Trump pattern that I this the the taco trade um that was you know that wasn't AI, that was that was real intelligence. That was like wait a second. But um we use the software to look for things, and it's uh kind of our own little language model there.

SPEAKER_00 28:26

Yeah, and I guess you have to use this objective judgment, your experience basically like this is real, this is not real, you know. From my from my old philosophy days, there is no objective reality.

SPEAKER_02 28:37

Yeah, right from Christmas. So if if dad passed away in 21, when did you kind of take over the company? Were you running it before he passed away, running together? How did that work exactly?

SPEAKER_01 28:47

We were running it together. I mean, I um just before I got married, we did a little uh succession plan in in uh 2000, 2001, where I sort of shifted over um to becoming the publisher and um running the business. So, you know, he he worked well into the the the 2000s to 2020 into his like early 90s. Um, I mean he faded, he didn't want to do so much, but he always proofed the book and and gave us ideas. And so I transitioned for about five, ten years, took over.

SPEAKER_02 29:21

So my here's my question then that's that's interesting. So we obviously we're we work financial advisors every day at the Carson Group, right? We've got we serve a 60,000 families, we have over 60 billion dollars in assets, over 500 financial advisors all over the United States. So we work with small business owners, right? That's what we get to do, and I think it's such an honor in RA to get to work with small business owners every day. As somebody who runs their own business, what are some things you learned that you probably had no idea you were getting into back in 2000 when you your dad signed those papers?

SPEAKER_01 29:46

Meeting a payroll. Okay. Uh a man's not a man until he's got to meet a payroll. Interesting. How many people do you have? Just we I got rid of it all. It's it's it's me, it's me and another guy. And we just I used to have about 15 people at one point, and it was just too much uh time wasting and chatting. Um, you know, it's cash flows and and uh managing expenses. I mean, one thing my father taught me was expense everything. Uh, you know, use the use the Amex card and uh let the accountants figure it out at the end. Um but try to run everything. Um, you know, and then just the the seasonal work that we do translates into this the seasonal, you know, behavior of of uh the business. So, you know, it's it's helped us track that.

SPEAKER_00 30:39

Are seasonal effects to the point about seasonal effects? Are these strongest in indices? Say SP 500 versus or even SP 500 versus the Dow was Nasdaq, or sectors, or like what about things like currencies and and then the bond market too?

SPEAKER_01 30:55

I mean the bond market and the and the stock market have an inverse relationship seasonally. Bond market tends to do well in the sell and may period, the the worst months, um, versus the equities sectors. There's a whole there's three pages in the stock traders almanac, and that's a lot of the work we do in the newsletter. It's all on different sector seasonality. And as I mentioned, with the utilities kind of works opposite. Um, you know, gold has there's old fourth quarter gold trade from the almanacs years ago that still works. We get in around July, August. Um so there's different seasonal trades for for different sectors. I think the strongest is is you know SMP and NASDAQ. Uh Russell kind of runs with with the um NASDAQ, even though as we've seen recently with with interest rates and things going on, uh it's got its it's got its own issues, um you know, other than just seasonal patterns there with uh what's going on with macro trends. Um but the uh the best six month for the Dow is is is probably the most distinct. I mean, you know the you remember David Aronson, Ryan, you know, you know him. He's he's a CMT guy. He he's on he's on some of the the the threads that I'm on. He did a book back in 08 called evidence-based technical analysis. We picked it as our best investment book of the year, and um he took 6,6,200 different uh uh black box systems and put them through um the scientific method, trying to disprove the null hypothesis, uh decided you know, trying to prove that their results were not um uh by chance and and and had predictive power. So they all failed. Um when we picked that book, we asked them to take the best six months uh switching strategy, you know, not just sell in A and put it through the same paces, you know, just just the calendar, not using MACD. So buying uh October, uh selling end of April, and then versus buying end April, selling at October. Guess what? Unlike any of the other 6200 plus different black box systems, this was the only one that you know was proven to have predictive power and not to not to be the result of chance.

SPEAKER_00 33:07

Interesting. I think I had that I had that book somewhere because once once you mentioned like somebody trying to run this through the usual statistical, you know, and and the thing was, you know, my my father uh created this in 1986, um, when it was the first publisher of the Stockwriter Zomino, the switching strategy.

SPEAKER_01 33:26

Oh so he took it, you know, and that was a back test there, looking back to 1950 or you know, 49, whatever. So uh Aaron took it from 87 forward, the first full year after the book was published, so that there wasn't any of the the the back testing.

SPEAKER_00 33:41

Um interesting. So bias.

SPEAKER_02 33:44

One one thing um that I noticed in my career, so I've been doing this for almost 26, maybe 27 years, as a technician, CMT. I love this conversation, right? Seasonals and sentiment and market uh breadth and looking at the past for potentially a path for where we're gonna go in the future. What I noticed early in my career, Jeff, was a lot of people thought it was voodoo, right? A lot, and now I think a lot of people realize, and you know, this some of this stuff does work. In your I mean, gee, you guys have known this for 60 years. I'm sure a lot of people kind of laughed at oh ha ha ha. There's no reason for that to work, but it does. I mean, uh, maybe you just don't care when people say that, but what's that evolution been of more people being coming accepting to hey, listen, this stuff works. History does repeat, people are the same. They're always going to panic at the lows, always gonna buy everything at the peak. Sentiment and emotions rule, and this stuff is a nice secondary to all that. How have you seen that in your career?

SPEAKER_00 34:33

You don't want too many people following it. I mean, in a way either, right?

SPEAKER_01 34:37

So, first of all, we still get flack for it. You know, the trolls out there love it, but other people, you know, go against it. The thing with technical analysis that I've noticed recently, all those like support lines and and and resistance, they become like magnets now that everyone's tracking the same things where they just pull the market right to it. I sent you the my Dow chart, it bounced right off of 45,000, which was this huge support level with the the the late 24 and early uh 25 tops there. So the it's kind of a double-edged sword where the acceptance, you know, people are using it, they realize that that it's true. As as Sona was noticing there, it does make it less effective because everyone's using the same thing. Um, maybe that's some of the reason that the selling has had a couple of rough years. I think that's some of the reason that technical analysis um has some issues. None of it's perfect, okay? You know, you asked me how to square uh uh the the the Trump cycle with the the worst six months and the midterm cycle. Um, you know, it's not just one or the other. You know, we're you know, you're a technician. Uh Sona's a uh a old school fundamental analyst from from what I gather. I don't know what I am. Well, I have five. I'm a pretend economist. I'll answer it.

SPEAKER_02 35:52

I will answer it. I will answer it very quickly what Sono is. He's older than me there.

SPEAKER_01 35:56

That's all that's all I have to say. So in our market at a glance that we put out in a newsletter to subscribers, it's got five disciplines: seasonal, fundamental, technical, monetary, and sentiment. It's not too different than us. We're all in there now. That's why that's why we get along so well. And the sentiment that I've been tracking lately was uh I didn't send you this, but it's something I put out in my in my deck uh uh for members is the investors intelligence. And I know you you tracked that. It's been um different than the AAI, the other sentiment readings, but uh it it has been instructive. And then there's VIX, and people get hung up on the um level that the VIX reached. I know you you're with me when we look at the the the the trend and the shape versus the actual level. So we had a nice you know turnaround from uh about 35 or so uh intraday or or at the open on the VIX, not as you know dramatic as we had in in 2020 or 2025. But then again, those were bear markets, right? Um and this is just a a bull market correction. So uh the kind of turn in the sentiment that we saw is more um indicative of uh a bull market correction than the you know the bear market action that we we kind of saw. I mean that getting to that 60 last year was was uh well serious.

SPEAKER_02 37:22

Yeah, I mean we could do this all day. We probably about 15 minutes here. Um who do you follow? Who who do you kind of look at and respect and watch and read along with?

SPEAKER_01 37:31

Um lots of people. Um, you guys for sure. I track you, you know, I hit you up uh when I do stuff. Yep, um, Rid Holtz and Josh, uh Batnik also, Tom McClellan, Aline Meisler. Um who else am I looking at? I mean, I get a lot of things coming in there. Uh my buddy Danny Riley, Mr. Topstep. Um I track some. He's he's got a good he was a pit trader, you know, SP Pit Trader of Chicago. Jeez, um Larry Williams, Larry McMillan, um Bollinger, you know. I mean, there's there's legends, some legends in legends. Uh uh Craig Johnson had a uh um you know the big C the big CMT guy Minnesota there. I get his book. Uh you know, it's it's um there's a lot. There's more.

SPEAKER_02 38:29

You know, we had J, and I'm sure JC's in there too. I know you followed JC. Um, yeah, we we had JC Chris. Yeah, we we had him on this podcast last year. And outside of we, I guess the number one viewed we had last year was uh Cliff Astness over at AQR. The second most was JC. So you know that there you go. It's uh it's kind of something that tells you people kind of like like this stuff. Um go ahead, Sonu.

SPEAKER_00 38:49

I was gonna ask about, and this ties to maybe something you mentioned when you were explaining MACD, because people talk about moving averages, right? I was my original question was going to be like, how do you weight new evidence or what happened in recent years versus the entire like of the what happened over the last hundred years? And you mentioned like for the MACD, you use exponential weighted averages, which is basically you're weighting near term data more heavily than older data, like whatever window you use, right? So I'm curious how you think about that.

SPEAKER_01 39:20

So with the MACD, it's you know, you're looking for a a turn, you're looking for you know a momentum shift, a turn of the market. When it comes to the older patterns and weighing uh more recent stuff versus older stuff, two things. One is what is the current uh year or current cycle doing? What's what's it tracking? Is it tracking the recent 21-year period? Is it tracking the midterm period? Is it tracking the 50, 70 year period? And then, you know, if you're not looking at how it's actually performing, you know, if you're just trying to get it, you want to compare, you want to look for some consistency across the different time frames. Is how we sort of square that. So it's not necessarily putting weight on more recent just because it's more recent. That's recency bias. If the market or the it the the sector or the the asset that you're tracking is tracking the more recent pattern, then you know you you go with what what's what's working. But uh comparing over different time frames is is definitely something we look for, especially like that turn of the month in October, November that happens over multiple time frames.

SPEAKER_02 40:25

Let me ask about gold. We added some gold in our tactical model, Sony. What like the end of March 2023 or around then? So obviously it's real we've been overweight equity, so that's been good. But obviously, having some gold in there as kind of an alternative to fixed income has been it's it's really helped. We'll just leave that there. What's your take on gold and is the cycle have life? Because gold's been struggling a little bit lately, you know. It's like it's still okay, but also it's up 64% last year, up 20, 30 percent to start this year. So yeah, it's it's not always gonna go up. What do you think about gold in the cycle there?

SPEAKER_01 40:54

I think it's topped right here. Okay for you know shorter term, intermediate term. Um, we're not in it right now. We had a nice seasonal trade from last summer through uh uh the winter with uh the GLD and also the the miners. Yep. Um I've been it looks like it's got a kind of a double top in there uh for now. I will be looking to get back into that when we when it comes around on the calendar for the seasonal trade in uh July, August, which is not too far away. When we get in that, but uh right now I I think it's it's it's seen the top for the year term.

SPEAKER_02 41:28

And getting technical, I mean, I look at a lot of the grains, corn, soybeans, some of those. Those look are starting to look a little more appealing. Part of me wonders these commodities, just like a lifeable market's past the baton. I'm like, maybe with commodities, the baton, maybe maybe gold passed it to some of those grains. You have any opinion on grains here? We have the DBA.

SPEAKER_00 41:44

Like you think it's a lot.

SPEAKER_01 41:46

I mean, you know, we're we're gonna be putting out the commodity traders almost again for 2027. That's something we're putting together here. Cool, cool. Uh the grains definitely have uh seasonal, strong seasonals. Uh we have the DBA, you know, the the basket of of uh uh in our newsletter portfolio right now. So um I I think there's I mean with what's gone on over in the in the straight, uh that's gonna put a little bit of a bid underneath uh grains and commodities. So um meat prices have been going up, cattle. I know it's it's really hitting me hard at home. All of us got my my my steak purchases have gone up a few dollars a pound.

SPEAKER_02 42:28

How far are you from the city? How far are you from New York, Jeff?

SPEAKER_01 42:31

About 30 miles.

SPEAKER_02 42:32

Okay, it's not too bad. Um, I think the very first time I met you in person was I think in 2014 when Phil Perman did that uh Yahoo finance contributor thing. We all flew in, and you and I were one of the first, I think 14 or 15 people that were named to that. So we've all kind of the little group, a bunch of us, a bunch of we're all still buddies. That original group. Um so when you go to the city, where do you like to eat? Because Sony and I go to New York often, and we always like to figure this out. Where do you go eat when you go to the city?

SPEAKER_01 42:56

I mean, it depends upon what you know what we're doing in there.

SPEAKER_02 42:59

Let's go steak and Italian. Let's just stick to two food groups. Steak and Italian. We'll start.

SPEAKER_01 43:03

I mean, you can always go to Carmines, um places down in Little Italy. I mean, go to Vincent's, go down, go down, go down there for Italian steak. Uh the old homestead, I think it's overlooked.

SPEAKER_02 43:16

Um we tried to go with Tom Lee. It was closed. We give that's the one Tom Lee took us. We go like at 10 o'clock, and I go, are they open? And Tom's like, oh, of course they're open. We love Tom, so no offense. But Tom's like, oh my goodness. Oh no, that was just you weren't there. I was solo there. That wasn't that. Never mind. It was just me, but that's why I was close. I like Gallagher's. I like Gallagher's. That's becoming my favorite. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 43:35

Yeah. I mean, the Dove Frisco's is a bit over the top, I think. Um, but uh the old homestead, you know, and I like to go I like to get off the beaten path. Some of the little places uh like was it uh place down at Bond Street, I forget, ill ill ill Molino or something like that. Those little Italian places. Okay, you know. Or go over to Arthur Avenue up in uh you know, up in the Bronx.

SPEAKER_02 43:59

Mm-hmm. Okay. And well well, I know uh Sona and I are coming. You know maybe I'll say this off yeah. I don't want everyone showing up, but we're we're coming we're coming in June and there's rumors of a happy there's rumors of a happy hour in June. We're just gonna leave it there, but we'll let you know if you can come to the city. We're gonna get a bunch of guys together and have a have a little party. So yeah, it'll be fun. But yeah, off Off record, we don't need everybody showing up for that.

SPEAKER_00 44:19

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. In terms of seasonality, since like you mentioned stocks trade stock traders, Almanac, does seasonality work with individual stocks? I know sectors, obviously, there is that, but have you I'm I'm sure you've got to I don't think so.

SPEAKER_01 44:33

I I I think that's a uh a a bad game to play. I I mean it's more of a I I think seasonality is more of a rising tide or sinking tide lifting all ships. I mean, there's there's a few select stocks.

SPEAKER_02 44:47

No, this thing right this AI camera is killing me. This AI I get to get rid of this. No, no, it has like it makes it follows me. So when I move it f and I'm trying to turn it off, and it does do hand signals. I don't know why this camera comes. So anyway, go ahead. Sorry.

SPEAKER_00 45:10

Okay, it's happened a couple of times Ryan puts up his hand, shows five fingers, and I I'm used to it because Ryan's trying to move his camera and stop his camera for moving, but it looks like can I ask a question, please?

SPEAKER_02 45:24

Yeah. Anyway, sorry. Sorry, sorry, Jeff. Sorry, Jeff. Yeah. At least I didn't give you the middle finger, right? That'd been worse. That's when you know we have to stop talking. I'll give you that one.

SPEAKER_01 45:32

I'm too easy. I'm number one. Yeah, so individual stock seasonality. I I've not found it to be really significant. I'm sure there's a a couple that do, but like those would be big benchmarks. I mean, one of the things we used to look at back in the old days was always like IBM was a great benchmark for the entire market. You know, not as much anymore, but you know, you could you could look at the you know, mag 7 or Microsoft or or you know uh any of the individual leaders or NVIDIA or something.

SPEAKER_00 46:00

ETFs, right? Like mag 7 etf or like mag 5 the ETFs are all sorts of things now, but I'm curious if he looks at some of those. Say it again. Do you look at some of those, like these smaller baskets of like mag 7 or not for seasonalities, not for seasonalities.

SPEAKER_01 46:18

Um I mean I did pick up a little Microsoft to weigh when it was down what like 380 or something, so that's just a kind of a because I use it a lot. We've been using Teams and things like that, and I know it's been getting some flax, so that but I don't see that as a I haven't seen that as a seasonal trade uh for individual stocks um in my experience.

SPEAKER_00 46:39

Talk about the options market. Like I started my career in the options market with you know modeling volatility and things like that. Ryan did in his trading options too. Talk about how the options market impacts seasonality. I've always thought there has to be something. I mean, there's like how much gamma there is, and then ops and you know, all of that, month after month after month, quarterly options.

SPEAKER_01 46:59

With the seasonality around opex, especially triple witching, and I don't subscribe to Guadruple Witching because I don't think single stock features have any impact on the market whatsoever. But there's you know, there is a seasonal pattern around options expiration. Each month has a little bit of of action on it. I know it's been diluted with the zero data expiration stuff, but the triple witching, especially uh, you know, uh around March, um, June, September, and December have some specific seasonal patterns. Um, you could guess that during the worst six months during the Celema period, the June and um September uh expirations, the triple witching there are weaker. December is the strongest because you've got that big push at the end of the year, and then there's this we you know tendency for weakness uh the week of triple witching to be followed by weakness the week after. So that's kind of the big takeaway from options um on a seasonal you know framework there.

SPEAKER_00 47:57

I've always thought about the seven I I mean, I'm just so this is just solely speculation, but I've always thought things like never short a dull market, right? And that's because you know, if invol is low, your ball is going down, and then the dealers have to buy less, you know, they have to keep buying back stock to remove the edges, you know, and as time passes as well, and that just you know puts upward pressure on the market. I mean, things can always break. I mean, something you know, tr Trump tweets something, it can break, sure. But generally, the on for the underlying trend, I feel like the options market can sort of boost it, or in in either direction, because of you know what the dealers have to do and things like that. But again, I'm the speculating. Curious if you looked into something like that.

SPEAKER_01 48:37

I mean, that's part of what drives all this stuff is what the dealers are doing, what the institutions are doing, and what they do on a regular basis. And it does impact seasonal behavior and seasonality. Um, I I really think it's the the big money managers, the big funds that are moving large chunks of money on a regular on a quarterly basis because of the way they're designed and the way they're built. And again, with the quarterly reporting for companies, you know, there was some talk about changing that. I mean, that that drives the behavior. That's why we have this Q4 market magic that's you know, we see this strength in Q4 because everyone's trying to make their numbers for the end of the year. And that that you know puts us back into that that weak spot, sweet spot setup of the four-year cycle, where you've got the the midterm low during Q2, Q3 generally, even though we may have had it this year with the the Trump cycle. And then you've got that strongest three-quarter combination from the fourth quarter of the midterm year to the second quarter of the pre-election year and even beyond, where the you know, Dow and SP are up 19, uh, 20% on average, and Nasdaq's up 29.3%. And then there's the, you know, from the midterm low to the pre-election year high, you've got the 50% move for the Dow, and NASDAQ's up 66.6% from the low to the high in you know what would be this year to next year. Uh I know it's low to high measuring, but it's just uh to underscore that that move during that part of the uh the cycle. I mean, Yale called midterm years the bottom picker's paradise.

SPEAKER_00 50:04

Wow. Huh. Interesting. Speaking of like you mentioned like calendar event, like op exit, things like that. What about events like Fed meetings? Uh I I just thought about like that's another thing that's regularly on the schedule. It's predictable, things like that.

SPEAKER_01 50:19

You kind of fade into it and fade out. It hasn't worked as well. Uh same thing with Congress being in session or out of session. Right. There was some talk about that. Um, there's holiday uh trades as well. Different holidays have have different behaviors. I mean, around presidents' day is the weakest, but again, that's you know, in February, which is a weak month in general. So there's all sorts of wrinkles in there, different trading days of the month. I mean, what July first trading day is one of the best trading days of the year. Um Ryan knows that. Um so there's there's all sorts of little quirks uh that you know day traders and and um you know swing traders can can capitalize on. But again, as you asked me before, how do you know what's working? You gotta see where the markets, how it's behaving in relation to the pattern. Sometimes, you know, it it doesn't the seasonal trade doesn't set up, whether it's for a sector trade or otherwise, and you just gotta pass on it and wait for a fatter pitch.

SPEAKER_02 51:14

Yeah, one of my favorites is um St. Patrick's Day, is usually green. I mean, you can't make that up. I mean, that's you know, that's that's that's great. Uh Jeff, you know, we are at the top of the hour our time, so we're respectful of time. Um, this has been amazing. Episode 186 of Facts Versus Feelings, talking about sell in May with Jeff Hirsch. Um, obviously, people we were I don't we can't like give recommendations per se. You can promote yourself in a second, but obviously Stock Traders Almanac is a legendary book. You can buy it every year. Jeff, uh promote yourself a little bit. Um how can the listeners follow more of what you're doing out there?

SPEAKER_01 51:46

Yeah, you can track me on social at Almanac Trader. Uh, the website is stocktradersalmanac.com. We have our newsletter service there, Almanac Investor. Every subscriber gets a free copy of the book with the subscription. Uh, we put out stock picks. We we do a fundamental screen with uh, you know, undervalued off the radar stocks with a seasonal overlay, the sector seasonalities that we're talking about with ETF picks, with buy and sell, you know, prices, stop losses, not just what to buy, but when to buy and when to get out and where to sell, our monthly almanac, the five disciplines, our market timing, the best and worst six months, you know, MACD buy and sell signals, Santa Claus rally, January barometer. We didn't even get into that today.

SPEAKER_02 52:26

Oh my goodness. We even we'll have to have you back and talk about Santa Claus, I guess. Yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_01 52:29

Okay, all that stuff goes out. And then you get a we do a monthly webinar where people get to ask questions for like half hour, an hour. Uh pretty, pretty solid uh conversation we have.

SPEAKER_02 52:39

And I joined you about a year ago or so. Do you still have a podcast or what did I join you on a while back? You had me on something. I had a podcast.

SPEAKER_01 52:45

I'm I'm gonna be switching over to a different platform. I don't currently have one right now.

SPEAKER_02 52:49

Got it. Okay, perfect. All right. Well, Jeff, thank you so much. I know the listeners enjoyed it. I enjoyed it, Sonu enjoyed it. We all learned a lot. You're the man. Um, shout out to your dad for everything he started and for you taking the baton and making it that much better. You've you've helped our industry in a lot, a lot of ways. And it's honored to call your friend, and thank you for joining us. All right, with all of that, every yeah, with all of that, everybody, this was episode 186. Sono and I will be back as always next week. Enjoy, give us those likes, give us those follows, give us some good reviews, bad reviews, can't leave the witness. We just like the algorithms. Please give your comments on the YouTube channel. See you everybody next week. Take care. Thank you. Goodbye. Information provided on facts versus feelings with some of our keys and Ryan features are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. The statements and opinions of Joe Guests may not be reflective of CWM LLC or its affiliate. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All entities are unmanaged and may not be invested indirectly. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. To determine what may be appropriate for you, consult with your attorney, accountant, financial, or tax advisor prior to investing. Guests on facts versus feelings are not affiliated with CWMLLC.