Talking SpaceX IPO (FvF Ep. 190)

In Episode 190 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, take on the SpaceX IPO and what it could mean for indexes, mega-cap weights, and the next phase of the AI trade. They’re joined by Blake Anderson, Director of Portfolio Management at Carson Group, for a wide-ranging conversation on market breadth, small caps, tech leadership, Google’s AI spending, software, and the growing influence of data centers and high-quality cash flows in today’s market.

The episode also digs into the latest rally in stocks, the role of FOMO, the state of the bond market, and why this bull market may still have more room to run even as leadership narrows.

From IPO mechanics and index inclusion rules to the economics of AI infrastructure, the conversation connects the market’s biggest headlines to the harder data underneath.

Key Takeaways:

• The S&P 500 is up nine consecutive weeks. When it has gained more than 15% in April and May combined, June has never been lower and the rest of the year averages nearly 19% gains.
• Small caps are up 18% year-to-date and it seems like nobody is talking about it. A third of those returns trace back to three companies, all tied to data centers and AI infrastructure.
• SpaceX chose the Nasdaq, and Nasdaq changed its rules. Mega-cap companies can now be assessed for index inclusion just 15 days post-IPO instead of waiting six months.
• At a $2 trillion valuation against $19 billion in 2025 revenue, SpaceX carries a price-to-sales ratio above 90. Historically, IPOs with price-to-sales above 40 average a 94% first-day pop, but a negative 45% three-year return.
• A deal disclosed in the SpaceX S1 could see Anthropic pay up to $15 billion annually for data center capacity, nearly matching SpaceX's entire 2025 revenue in a single contract.
• Google is raising $80 billion in equity and has cut buybacks to zero. AI infrastructure spending has moved from optional to existential, with payoff timing still uncertain.

Jump to:

0:00 — Welcome and the SpaceX question
1:19 — Markets rip higher after the spring rally
10:33 — Breadth, small caps, and hidden leaders
14:10 — FOMO signals and the bubble check
15:59 — Blake joins on tech and rates
20:48 — Google funds AI data centers
26:22 — Software’s AI reset and data moats
29:13 — SpaceX IPO filing and index rule changes
43:01 — IPO stats, valuation risk, and consumer wrap

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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