The Summer Rally Continues (FvF Ep. 195)

In Episode 195 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, celebrate the Dow's first close above 53,000 and break down the fastest 1,000-point milestone in the index's history. They unpack what's really driving the S&P 500's 10% first-half gain, splitting the return into earnings growth, margin expansion, and multiple contraction to make the case that this rally isn't a valuation-driven bubble.

The episode also covers the widening gap between mega-cap tech and the "lag 7," how AI is quietly showing up in small-cap and industrial stock returns, record highs across advance-decline lines, and why a stretched momentum trade doesn't have to mean disaster for the second half. Ryan and Sonu also swap origin stories marking their four- and seven-year anniversaries at Carson, react to Team USA's World Cup exit, and preview next week's mid-year outlook.

[Key Takeaways]

• The S&P 500's 10% first-half return was driven almost entirely by fundamentals: earnings growth contributed 18 percentage points while multiple contraction subtracted about 8.5 points, meaning stocks are actually cheaper than they were six months ago.
• Forward margins have jumped from roughly 14.5% to 16% since January, contributing 10 percentage points to the year-to-date return alongside 8 points from sales growth tied to nominal GDP.
• Technology gained 33% in the first half even as the "Mag 7" fell about 4%, showing how much dispersion exists within the sector as AI-driven names pull away from laggards like Apple and Microsoft.
• AI's influence now stretches well beyond big tech: roughly 12 of the Russell 2000's 23% first-half gain traced back to AI-linked names, with industrials contributing more than financials.
• Multiple advance-decline lines, including the NYSE, S&P 500, small-cap, and global Dow, hit all-time highs, a breadth signal that has historically preceded market peaks by about 11 months on average.
• The S&P 500 momentum index's trailing one-year excess return sits in the 96th percentile versus the last 40 years, prompting Carson to trim some momentum exposure in favor of diversification rather than trying to time an exit.

Jump to:

0:00 - Welcome And Market Milestones

0:58 - Dow 53,000 And Summer Rally

3:26 - What Really Drove Returns

8:31 - AI Volatility Plus Sector Rotation

16:31 - Breadth Signals And Slingshot Stats

23:29 - Momentum Extremes And Risk Management

28:45 - Ryan’s Carson Origin Story

32:05 - Sonu’s Origin Story And AI Era

42:04 - World Cup Heartbreak And Leadership

47:57 - Payrolls Takeaways And Wrap-Up

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Transcript

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Welcome And Market Milestones

SPEAKER_00 0:02

Welcome to the Facts versus Feelings Podcast. I'm your host, Ryan Dieter, and I'm joined by my co-host, Tonavarke. Cutting through the noise with Ryan Dieter, Chief Micro Strategist, and Sonovarky, Chief Macro Strategist, taking out the board and helping investors focus on what really matters. And we are back, Sonu. Episode 195 of Carson's Facts versus Feelings. The summer rally continues. I know you want to talk about a lot of stuff, Sonu. There's a lot of stuff you want to talk about, but let's just dive in. We can save it. Let's just dive into that. Um the time we're doing this, we record on Tuesday. What is today's date, Sonu? I don't know. Tuesday, the 7th. July 7th. 7-7.

Dow 53,000 And Summer Rally

SPEAKER_00 0:58

Just yesterday on Monday, July 6th, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which started trading on May 26, 1896, closed above 53,000 for the first time in history. Now, this is a little context around this. Sono it took only four trading days to go from 52,000 to 53,000. That's the fastest ever 1,000-point milestone. We get it, everyone, as you go higher in theory, should, but still, I think it's just important to point that out. The previous fastest ever was five years ago, like from 32,000 to 33,000 took five days. All right. So it just kind of shows again this summer rally is happening, the summer rally is continuing. What surprises you the most, Sonu, about this summer rally?

SPEAKER_02 1:48

I think essentially what's happened over the first half. I I was talking to you earlier, I was on Yahoo Finance yesterday with a friend Josh Lipton, and the SP 500 is up 10% yesterday.

SPEAKER_01 1:59

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 1:59

Last quarter is up 15%. So obviously, first quarter is a little bit of drag. We had the war and all of that. Second quarter, 15%. We're talking about tech and AI. From your charts, uh, this is what I talk about on Yahoo Finance. Say that was the best, what are the the best second quarters ever? Yeah. And was it the best midterm year second quarter? And that's supposed to be negative, right?

SPEAKER_00 2:21

On average, that is the worst quarter out of the 16 quarters, down 2.8%. We were just at about a 15% or in a mid, so the best midterm second quarter ever. Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 2:31

And 16 yeah, and this is the 16-quarter presidential cycle, right? Q2 of the midterm year is the worst. Second worst is Q3, but like I always say, momentum begets momentum. I know you have some charts on this.

SPEAKER_01 2:45

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 2:46

But what you know what? Maybe we can put this up. But we always say, like, what's powered this rally, right? Yeah. Yes, there's optimism, and you know, I think you have several, you and I have talked about this for ages that sentiment doesn't seem that skewed to the positive side. If anything, it seems like a negative, right? I mean, with so many people, just yesterday I was asked about a bubble again. I wrote about that. And and it may or may not be, it but you know, who knows? Five years from now, it could be a you know, you may be like, oh, that was a bubble, but that's not the point. The point is what do you do about it? How do you invest? And then you so one thing I like to look at is okay, the SP 500 over the first six months of the year gained 10%. Where did

What Really Drove Returns

SPEAKER_02 3:26

that come from? I break it down into earnings growth, multiple expansion, and then dividends is a half percentage point or something. So out of the 10 percentage points, earnings growth, Ryan, this is forward-looking earnings. We can put this chart up for return drivers for 2026 year to date. Earnings growth contributed, Ryan, 18 percentage points. Which means wait, the SP 500 is up only 10 percentage points, right? Multiple multiples dragged. You got contraction, multiple growth dragged by eight and a half percentage points. I mean, you got half a percentage point thereabouts from dividends. That's why you landed up with about just over 10% year-to-date return. Now, you where do profits come from? Two pieces, right? Sales growth. Sales growth comes from nominal GDP growth. That's clocking in around six percent. Sales growth contributed about eight percentage points. The other side of profit growth is the you know, that dual tailwind you and I talk about margin expansion. Margin expansion contributed 10 percentage points to the year-to-date first half return. That is incredible. We almost never see that. Sales growth, yes. If the economy is growing, yes, you expect sales growth, especially nominal GDP, right? That's what matters. It's not real GDP that matters for profits and revenues, it's nominal GDP, but margin expansion, right? 10 percentage points. I mean, you remember that section you wrote in the 2026 outlets, the dual tailwinds, right? Forward-looking earnings going up, and over the last quarter, that's gone vertical. The other tailwind, margin expansion, it's been going up at the start of the year, forward-looking margins of 14.5% right now at 16. You look at a chart of that, it's gone vertical. I mean, that's the story.

SPEAKER_00 5:04

Yes, I'm going by memory here, Sony. You might have to correct me a little bit, but at the start of this year, SP 500 earnings were expected to be up like 13, 14 year over year. That's like up now to 24% year over year. And hey, it might keep going, and that's justifying it. Now you made a maybe a little comment there about the section I wrote about the dual tailwinds and our outlook. Yes, those were we've talked about them extensively. Higher earnings, higher profit margins continue to drive the spull market. Literally every six months, I have a little joke, and I'm gonna tell a lot of our friends on this podcast. It are we do every six months, right? The big outlook in January, the mid-year outlook in in July. And I like go back and see what I wrote six months ago and literally almost use the same thing, but update the numbers. I've done this for Don't give it away. Hey, you know what? We're amongst friends. We're amongst friends for three and a half years now. We've been maybe not quite three and a half years, but more like two and a half years at least. I've been using the same section that earnings and profit margins drive this stock market. Let's talk. That's important to note. One other thing, you know, the bubble, and I'm not, I don't think it's a bubble. We've talked about this before. Um, but you just pointed something out. Forward PE multiples at the start of this year and the SP 400 were like 22 and a half, they're like down around 20 now. So if this is some big bubble, I don't know, call me old-fashioned. I would think multiples would be going bonkers because people would just be paying any price to own equities. Again, everyone goes back to the 1990s. If you weren't there, believe me, it was a crazy time. Uh, but people were buying companies literally making no money. And yes, SpaceX just came out, they don't technically make any money yet, but they're growing fast and they're gonna make money soon enough. I can't make a recommendation, but that's all likelihood. But for the most part, Sonu, stocks are cheaper now than they were six months ago. And last I checked, small cap was up 20% at the middle of the year, SP ballpark 10, mid-cap is kind of right in the middle. Most global stock markets actually have more than the US emerging markets. We've talked a lot about. Um, how much was South Korea up the first half? 110, 100, 100, 112, yeah, 112, 120. 112. I mean, listen, so who's counting? Yeah, who's counting? Um, you know, so the reality is this has been a great year because let's not forget we gained like 24. Uh, let's see, in 2023, 25, 2024, 24. Last year, like 16, 17. Now we're another 10 right now. All right, on that's the SP 500, that's price only. Uh, that's not too bad. Now, next week we will release our mid-year outlook. We're not going to give away everything right now, but if you listen to this podcast, we truly appreciate it. It's an honor. Um, we're still bullish, you probably can guess that. Uh, but so let's talk about that bubble again. How do you have a bubble if multiples are cheaper?

SPEAKER_02 7:48

Yeah, it's very hard to see that when you look at the multiple because uh I mostly because we're going from memory here. I mean, memory is in history, right? We can all look at history. The last several bubbles, it's always been you know, multiple expansion. Yeah. That's raced ahead. This time, now I get this argument, and yeah, like I look at margins. Can microns margins, by the way, we're gonna mention a bunch of stocks, not a recommendation blank, right? Okay to buy any of this stuff. Can microns margins stay at 80%? I mean, you know, like okay, can NVIDIA's margins stay at 80%? I don't know, right? And that's where if you start to get a pullback, and and you know, when we talk about momentum and AI, you're seeing a lot of volatility.

AI Volatility Plus Sector Rotation

SPEAKER_02 8:31

Like today, again, yesterday, like first two days of July, momentum took a backseat, momentum pulled back, AI, you know, AI stocks, chip stocks pull back every night or every morning when I wake up. You know, the first thing I look at now, what did South Korea do? If South Korea's up, I know, oh, that's a good day for momentum, that's a good day for the Nasdaq, that's a good day for AI. If South Korea is down as it was yesterday, like boom, the stuff is going down. And it's not going down half a percent or 0.25. No, it's going down two, three, four, five percent, right? This morning, EWI, the South Korea ETF, down five and a half percent. Yesterday it was up five and a half percent. So that that's what you get at these, you know, meant something stretched, and I think it is stretched.

SPEAKER_00 9:15

So here's kind of fascinating. I honest to goodness, I've been busy, been a busy morning. If you would have said South Korea's up five percent or down five percent, I would have been surprised either way. And that that kind of tells you kind of where we are, exactly. And yet, literally, you know, small caps we've talked about are breaking out. Uh, industrials are strong, financials are breaking out. I mean, I I think it's really a good thing. You can and I know you let's put the chart up. So you had it, but it was a sector breakdown year to date. All 11 sectors on the SP 500 with tech up the most. We can put that one up, Connor. We talk sectors here for a second. You can see I'm go by memory here. It's on, I think it's five sectors outperforming the SP 500, but it was tech on one side, and then on the other side, it was communication services, was like the worst right at the bottom down. And listen, I've done this a long time. And you say, What's the most surprising thing that's happened this year? Honest to goodness, I'm not shocked that crude oil doubled overnight because listen, that stuff can happen. I am truly more surprised that tech has done what it did, and communication services, which used to be kind of cousins, are so different. And I just did a um a uh podcast with our friend Larry Sprung over Mitland. So shout out to Larry, and we were talking about some of these things. And I kind of said it on the fly, but I said, you know, what about the second half of this year? We're not gonna give too much away because that's next week's supposed to be. But what if we start to see some multiple expansion? What if Mag 7, which everyone has been kicking, everyone and their mothers are making fun of it, calling it to lag seven? Because hey, it has lagged. But you know what happened last week? You just said it. The socks, chip stocks had two consecutive down 5% days. Now, after the rally it's had, listen, that's going to happen. But there was a day last week, I think on that first day. So I think it was Wednesday, everybody, with the holiday and everything. Trust me, could be wrong. There was a day, yes. Yeah, there was a day though where the mag seven was up like almost three percent and chips down five percent. So that's an eight percent outperformance. That's like the largest we've ever seen. What if the lag seven, everybody's been kicking all of a sudden, starts to come back? I mean, I honestly, I think it will. I think communication services are gonna come back, and it started to. Um, you know, that's just the rotation that we're seeing in this bull market. You know, it's just you don't want to be in the hottest, strongest sector. But again, maybe on YouTube, we're showing these 11 sectors. Anything stand out to you, Sona, besides what I just said, how tech did one thing, communication service did another. What stands out there?

SPEAKER_02 11:27

I mean, technology, obviously, when you look at the tech tech is the best performing sector, and by how much, right? It's at differential. SP 500 is up just over 10 year to date first half. Technology is up 33 percent, and then if you tell me the let's say the mags ETF, which tracks the mag 7, that's down four percent. That's what doesn't sort of compete. Wait a minute, you just told me technology is up 33 over the first six months of the year, but the mag 7 is down right low. Like, and that gets to the fact that Microsoft is suffering right now. Max Microsoft is part of tech, Apple's not is okay and not doing all that great. Nvidia is sort of hanging in there. You know, we talked to Michael Backnick about that. He pulled up the charter of Nvidia saying, look, it's flat. But you know, the AI wave, and this gets to the other part of it. And I've been doing some work on I'll I'll put a blog, I'll I'll write something about this later this week. How much is AI seeping into now? We know it's seeping into all our lives in some way or the other, but it's also seeping into other sectors, right? Interesting, and that gets to even industrials. Industrials are 20%, but a chunk of industrials over I think it's about 30% you know, in terms of weight of industrials, has over a 50% correlation with tech. Right? And then just you know, I'm still pulling this data, and this is where AI is actually helping me because the Russell 2000 has it's got about like close to 2,000 names, it doesn't have exactly 2000, just like the SP 500 doesn't have 500 names.

SPEAKER_00 12:58

I thought the Russell II had like 16 or 1700. It's kind of like who's in grants too. It's like one of those things that doesn't make a lot of sense.

SPEAKER_02 13:04

Um I have about 1950, something like that. Okay, well yeah, yeah, it's it's close. All right. So the best performing set so the Russell 2000 over the first six months of the year, up 23%, and down much better than the SP 500. Outperform, you look at that and say, absolutely, like there's breath, right? Which is not bad. But go ahead. Are you gonna say that?

SPEAKER_00 13:24

Yeah, I was just oh you you're not even making, you can just tell by looking at my face. Yeah, I know. This is how you know we've done this, we've done this too long. Yeah, our shout out to Michael, or not Michael, sorry, um, Brian Belski, who joined us a while back in one of our um we do like a live stream, and Belski was saying way back at the start of this year, look at small caps, look at mid-caps, rotation away from the mag 7. Doesn't mean mag 7 is going to do terribly, but I mean, so he, you know, we've been talking about these concepts too, but I know Belski was actually just on compound and friends the week after us. So I listened to a good conversation, but he uh had some nice calls with this whole rotation, and he said the market's not gonna fall apart. There was a time if you just said small caps are 23%. I bet most people think, ooh, I bet the market fell apart because you know what, the other stuff didn't do as well. That's not at all what's happened. Go ahead, Sonic.

SPEAKER_02 14:08

But here's the thing so tech, it's a large part of the SP 500, we know that. It makes about 18. So it's not too small, it's still sizable for prospective financials, which is what you usually think about when you think small caps, financials about 16. So tech is still larger. The tech stocks, in terms of the way market cap rating works in the Russell 2000, tech stocks within the small cap index are up 52, right? 52 percent. Small caps are not too shabby, small caps are hanging in there. You're gonna have talked about banks, you know, smaller community banks doing well, all of that. If you go to Carsong Group.com slash research, our colleague portfolio manager Blake Anderson just wrote a nice piece on community banks, things like that. Small cap financials are up 16. But tech coming back to tech, 52. The second best sector is actually industrials, 24 positive. But this is just within you know, the industrials within small cap. That was that got me thinking, it's like, wait a minute, like what's happening? That seemed too correlated because I know on the large cap side they are correlated. So let me investigate a little bit. And I, you know, full disclosure, I used AI to help me here too. So out of the 23%, right? I took, I asked basically AI, tell me what is the direct linkage between or is there a linkage between all these 1950 companies and AI? Right? How strong is the linkage? And basically I mapped out okay, what's the you know, contribution from AI related names to the total return? Out of the 23%, 12 percentage points came from AI related names within the small cap index. So over half was came was riding that same thing you and I have been talking about, the AI wave. Out of that, technology accounts for about nine and a half percentage points out of the 23%, but industrials, another two and a half percentage points, which is actually a larger contribution than financials made, right? But all that to say I threw a bunch of numbers, yeah, AI is all over the place. You just have to look for it, you just have to carefully know that it's there.

SPEAKER_00 16:35

It's just something about it. You're using AI to ask questions about AI. I don't know. Um, you know, some of these concepts I literally talked about last week, but I don't even remember last week. So I'll do them again. Um, the time we're doing this, right? The New York Stock Exchange advanced decline line is hitting an all-time high. The New York Stock Exchange

Breadth Signals And Slingshot Stats

SPEAKER_00 16:55

common stock only advanced decline line hits an all-time high. SP 500 advanced decline line last week hit an all-time high. Small cap advanced decline line last week at an all-time high. Mid cap yesterday hit an all-time high. I mean, the re uh there's something called the global Dow Advanced Decline line. Get it from our friends over at stockcharts.com, um, which again looks at global components, all-time high just yesterday. I mean, Sony, market breadth leads price. If you look at the New York Stock Exchange, advanced decline line, and the New York Stock Exchange go back like 50 years, all right? The New York Stock Exchange peaks on average, and I can find you times that were shorter, I can find you times that were longer, but peaks on average 11 months after market breadth peaks. So let's say market breadth peaks today. I don't think it's going to, but let's just say it does. You still could have upwards of 11 months on average of gains. As that's again, as things kind of um less broader now. We get a little more narrow. Word looking for is more narrow. Um, that is not the case at all. Now, I do want to show one thing on the YouTube channel, the stock market slingshot. Did you play with slingshots, by the way, growing up uh in India in the Middle East?

SPEAKER_02 18:00

Catapults, catapults is what we called it.

SPEAKER_00 18:03

Oh, okay. Yeah, but sorry. So you called a slingshot a catapult. Catapult, yeah. Oh, yeah. Okay. A safe, safe concept. Oh, save thing. Okay, yeah. Learn something new every day. Here we go. All right. So on the YouTube channel, we're going to talk about slingshots for a second there, Sandu. Um, we just had a 10% quarter. You mentioned 15, but I found a temperature. So anytime you gain 10% after a negative quarter. Little known fact about the stock market this year, everybody, it was down in the first quarter. I know that sounds like, no, good. Yes, trust me, we were down in the first quarter. SB was down 15%. I'm sorry, sorry, down 5% for the year in late March. All right. So when you have a down quarter and then you slingshot Sonu with an up 10% or more return, that next quarter has been higher. Are you ready for that? Are you sitting down, Sonu? That next quarter has been up 16 out of 17 times. All right. So oh, that's that doesn't sound too bad. The next two quarters up 15 out of 16 times, up uh almost 11% on average, as you can see right there. So the next six months, basically. The next six months. So momentum begets momentum. It is what it is. And shout out to Jeff Hirsch um over at Almanac Trader. Jeff Hirsch, uh the stock trader is almanac. He did a variation of that. And I I dug in. I think he looked at actually negative first quarter, then a 10% second quarter. The rest of the year's been higher six out of six times, never lower. Now, the next one I want to share, Sona, then you can feel free and jump in. The sweet spot. So, Connor, put the sweet spot chart up or table actually. And it's funny because if you go back and see what we said a year ago, we talked about this exact same concept. When the S P 500 at the middle of the year is up between five and 10%. So we're gonna call that a good year. Is that a great year? No, a great year be up 30%, 20%, whatever. But that's a stretched rubber band. And clearly it's not a bad year because you're up, you know, between five and 10% at the middle of the year. That's pretty solid. The rest of the year, so the next six months are higher 88% of the time. Now, not always spectacular gains, but last year was pretty good. So again, we're in the sweet spot. We have a lot of momentum, we have waves still there. These are all still reasons. We're pretty optimistic. We'll get more into some of that next week when we release our mid-year outlook. But those are things that I'm thinking about that really um, I guess you know, we've been bullish, I've been bullish, uh, still have me in that camp. What do you want to talk about now, Sonu?

SPEAKER_02 20:21

I mean, that wave, the AI wave, is so strong that it's completely overrun normal seasonality that you would expect, right? Like, like is like we talked about Q2 was supposed to be, I mean, historically speaking, from a seasonality perspective, presidential cycle perspective, Q2 is you know, probably going to be a tough quarter. Maybe Q3 too. But this wave is just so large, it's just so enormous. I I mean, and even the tech thing, the tech was sort of lagging up until March.

SPEAKER_00 20:54

March, March 30th. I mean, it totally was because software was crashing and software's a big chunk of tech. Right.

SPEAKER_02 21:01

And then from March 30, 30th, not even March to March 31st, March 30th through you know the end of the second quarter, it just went completely bananas.

unknown 21:10

Right?

SPEAKER_02 21:10

And that's where it and and momentum is gets to, you know, I I think I'm pretty sure I've talked about this, but I'll bring it up again. Yep, momentum is the way you ride the wave right now, and it was up 36% the SP 500 momentum index in the first half versus 10 for the SP 500. Over the last one year, SP 500 momentum index up 44%. The SP 500, by the way, is not too shabby. 21% return. I'll say 21% over the last year, but momentum did more than double that. The excess return is 23%. Where does that rank, historically speaking, over the last 40 years, rolling one year periods, 96th percentile? It's even more extended if you look at the last three years, right? Last three years, momentum's done. This is incredible, 42% annualized. It's not cumulative, it's annualized 42% over the last three months. Now, three years. Now the SP 400 again is also done 19% annualized, which is pretty amazing. That but still, excess return, annualized basis 23%. That is the hundredth percentile. Now, something in the hundredths percentile. Can stay in the hundredth percentile, but chances are you know, first thing you see, I think, is a lot of volatility. That's what you're seeing right now. Every day, one day, you know, South Korea is up five percent, next day it's down five percent, right? Same thing with momentum, and we're numb to it, we're numb to it anymore. And and momentum's up two percent, down two percent, up three percent, down to you see this extreme volatility when you're on top of the wave, it's very unstable. Could it continue? Now, my thinking is that I want rotation, but I don't want too much of it. We talked about this last week too. Yeah, right. Because if you get too much, if this you know, let's say chip stocks crash and burn. Let's say momentum goes back to the 50th percentile. You know, we don't want that. We're positioning our portfolios to edge for that possibility with low volatility, something that's not correlated with the AI wave. But if that happens, I mean the thing is it's all it's not just an equity market story anymore, it's a macroeconomic story. What's happening in AI and chips and all of that. If chip stocks break down and crash, that means the AI wave is over. I don't want to see that. At least not right now. I want the boat books like it's just like I think the AI wave rising tide lifts all boats. I think then you're in, you know, that could be potential trouble. It takes everything down with it.

SPEAKER_00 23:44

So a couple thoughts here. Good good stuff there. You know, I know we have a lot of new listeners after we joined the compound of friends a few weeks ago. So thank you to the new listeners. Obviously, thank you

Momentum Extremes And Risk Management

SPEAKER_00 23:53

to the consistent listeners as well. So, one thing I think Son of that makes you know this podcast a little different is we talk about the stuff like we're talking about, but we manage real money, right? We manage billions of dollars. Carson Group is one of the largest, fastest growing RAAs in the United States, over 600 financial advisors in 44 different states, and we're growing. Who knows? We might be in 45 states by the time I say this, and we keep growing. The reality, though, is we're thinking about these things every single day. You mentioned in late March when the SP was down 5%, and you and I were looking up at 15%. We're like, do we really want to leave our target? Because this person cut their target, that bank cut their target, that I mean, literally, some of the well-known bulls that are friends of ours, and maybe even been on this podcast, uh, we're all of a sudden sounding pretty bearish. And I'm looking around like, oh my goodness, if he's bearish, if she's bearish, you know what? The last bull threw in the white flag, and then literally we had the largest uh second quarter rally in the history of the stock market in the midterm year. But Sonu, from a portfolio point of view, we have loved, oh love's a strong word. We have liked, we'll just go with liked. Uh, maybe don't get in trouble with compliance. Uh we've liked momentum. We've been overweight momentum. We've we've been riding momentum. You just said it's in the 100th percentile the last three years. We have a fiduciary obligation to our advisors and the clients, the money we run, to do the best thing for them. Is the best thing to just keep riding it and hope it stays at 100? Or are there different things we can do with the portfolio to still benefit from that? But when the inevitable happens, and that is momentum does come back, it might be next year, it might be next week. I don't know. You don't want to be three years from now, we have no idea. And it could be three years from now. We're not going to complain for a second if it's three years from now. What are we doing in our portfolios to kind of help ourselves there? Uh in case you know this momentum trade just stops tomorrow.

SPEAKER_02 25:40

Like we manage a lot of money, so we're managing risk, basically. I I mean, you have 60,000 households here at Carson. Yep. You know, a big old, you know, they're giving us their wealth to manage. You know, screw that up, right? We take that very risk, you know, very seriously. Right? Obviously, it's a job, so we have to take it seriously, but no, uh like that we do have that responsibility, right? Even beyond just paper responsibility. No, we take it seriously. And it gets to like you mentioned, like me, you this is interesting the way you phrase it. You said we don't love momentum, we like momentum, but that gets to the fact that look, if we love momentum, that's the only thing we'd be doing. Right, right. We'd go all in on momentum, and arguably, you know, hindsight is 2020. Well, we should we should have. We should have the last three years. Go to cash and say, see you later. We would have drowned everybody. But again, it gets to that point about risk management. And I think all of us in we haven't called it a bubble. We you know, I don't want to get into whether it is or not, but there's there's something big happening, and it's not just an equity market story, like I said, it's a macroeconomic story. We're seeing it in GDP data too, right? So you have to ride that wave, but at the same time, you don't want to put all your eggs into it and how we're you know, sort of hedging for the possibility. I mean, Jeff DeGraff had this note out over, you know, last uh earlier this week talking about the anatomy of a, you know, what is it? Anatomy of a semiconductor bubble. He's called a semiconductor top. And he says, basically, shoot them in the back after they crack. Right? It's it's one way to say, like he he said, you know, Jeff said this is the bubble back in semi semis, basically, specifically. He said this is a bubble back in April, but doesn't mean you sell. He said, wait till it, you know, you start trimming it once it starts cracking. They you know, once it really starts going on, then that's when you know you get out, but let the tape go. Let the tape direct. And in our case, you know, one way is look, we kind of threw in the towel on market timing. Right? And like I can't really time the market. I like to think we do. We do it fairly well, hopefully. But still, we've thrown in the towel there, but which means what do you do? How do you protect yourself in advance of a crack in this? You diversify, you don't put all your eggs into the momentum basket. How we've done that, we've had this low volatility momentum barbell. Now, earlier this year, at the start of the year, late last year, we the barbell was in favor of momentum. But recently, I won't say when exactly, but the last month or so, we trimmed a little bit of momentum. And I bet, fingers crossed, hopefully, that trade will look terrible. But we would do it again and again. Yeah. Right? That's the risk management piece. But in hindsight, so far, that trade is looking horrible. But that's okay.

SPEAKER_00 28:33

Yeah, yeah. So shout out to Jeff. He's over at Ren Mac. We we talk about uh Renmac's work a lot, they do incredible uh work there. Um, so let's see here. What um I don't know what else we want to talk about from a markets point of view. But what else is there? So anyone knows what we're doing.

SPEAKER_02 28:48

Yeah, I prefer talking about the markets than the world cup, but you know.

SPEAKER_00 28:51

So let's let's go there. Let me let me go no, we're not gonna World Cup yet. I don't want you to, you know, smash your computer. Not yet, not yet. Um I noticed something. So this is something on LinkedIn because you don't always pay attention to this stuff. I started getting all these messages on LinkedIn, Sonny, and I was like,

Ryan’s Carson Origin Story

SPEAKER_00 29:09

whoa, what happened?

SPEAKER_02 29:11

I'm like, uh oh. That happened to me too.

SPEAKER_00 29:14

Of course, we're getting a bunch of DMs, and you're like, what's going on here? And then I realized, oh, LinkedIn is saying, congratulations, I've hit four years with Carson. So I'm gonna give a quick little story. Again, kind of a um to new listeners, kind of like uh uh how we got to this podcast, how I got the Carson. So I grew up in Springfield, Ohio. I went to Xavier University out in Cincinnati, Ohio, southwestern Ohio, got the stock market bug in 99, been waking up every single day for the last 27 years and love this stuff, right? Love this stuff. I worked in research for a long time. I started leveraging social media. Um, I was one of the first people to do blogs before they were called blogs. I was doing podcasts where they're called podcasts. I was doing vlogs before they were called vlogs. Um, and then I worked um at a place called LPL Financial, gotten more into working with financial advisors and clients and managing money for a guy named Bert White, currently our CEO here at um uh Carson. So Bert was at LPL and he went to Carson. And fortunately, the stars aligned for me to leave LPL and come to work with Carson where I've been for the last four years and have an absolute blast. Now it doesn't hurt the market's gone like up for the four years. That makes your life a little easier. But here's the greatest thing I've ever done in my career. I've probably said this before, but I'm gonna say it again. And then so no, maybe we can maybe call this like an origin story to the new listeners. Love to hear your origin story too. Uh wrap this up quickly. So when a Bert's like, hey, come over to Carson, I'd look and all this stuff. And I said, Okay, yeah, that looks like a great opportunity. And thank God I did it. But anyway, like anybody, I said, Well, Bert, I don't want to just come over because, like, I got a job for the last seven years. I want to have a summer break. Who wouldn't? If you got a job lined up, give me a break. So I said, I don't know. But it was a bad market as well. So you definitely wanted a break. And that was the summer of 20, because that's true. Because in 22, when the market crashed out, actually started a rally again into the summer months of 22. Right. You thought you're gonna, and then it oh boy. I started it and then the market just went straight down for a couple months. Not a good time to start. Anyway, so I said, so here's what Bert's like, you know what? Whatever. He's like, How about this? Like, just start, and he's like, just take like a week or two off. I don't I said, Well, I'm well, call what you want. I'm not, you know, he's like, I'll just pay it. Yeah, I think he just didn't want word to come out that I was leaving, and he didn't want somebody else maybe to come in and swoop me up. So here's what I'm getting at, everybody. When I told L Pale I was leaving, they quickly said, maybe two minutes later, there's the door. I was one of the very few people ever in the research department that was asked to leave the second I said I was leaving. So there you go. That's uh did you have the proverbial box and carton and taking all your stuff out? It's kind of like that. Yeah, it's kind of like that. That's you're escorted by security. Yeah, yeah, you know. Anyway, I've had that happen. It happens. Uh, but anyway, what I'm getting at though is there was a week, uh pretty much four years ago right now, in early July 2022, where I was paid by Carson. I was paid Sonu by LPL. I didn't work for either of them. That's the greatest thing I've ever done in my career.

SPEAKER_02 32:06

Don't tell anyone the call back. No, they're not.

SPEAKER_00 32:08

No, no, no, they're gonna ask for it back. I know, I know. I think I've got the I think Statute of Limitations is good. I can tell this story now. It's not four years later. So anyway, it's yeah, so four years later. So, anyway, so that's uh kind of my origin story. Sonu, what's your origin story for the Thacks versus Feelings listeners out there?

SPEAKER_02 32:22

Gosh, I mean, you know, I had never intended to be in finance. Oops, I know, oops, thankfully,

Sonu’s Origin Story And AI Era

SPEAKER_02 32:29

oops, right? That is like the best oops that's happened. Well, maybe after my decision to move to Chicago. No, I I I joke at client events and things like that, but because everyone sees the PhD behind my name. I don't have a CFA, you know, I don't have any, I'm not a PhD economist for good or worse, you know. So I'm not, you know, uh I don't own a bow tie either. That's good. I would like one of those bolo ties, though. I mean, next time I'm down in Texas, I'd like to get one of those bolo ties. Shout out, you know, this is a hint hint to all our friends in Texas. If you have any recommendations for bolo ties, let me know. One day you may see me in one. But no, look, uh, I wanted to do actually, I wanted I was a fan of Formula One. I wanted to do aerospace engineering. So that's what's that was my track. I went to Purdue and did my yeah, ended up doing my master's and PhD. PhD was mechanical engineering and switched. And it took me that long to figure out I was not very good at engineering. No, I like the math piece of it. I don't like the five, you know, the applied physics piece of the uh, you know, engineering, which is ironic because you know, even at my dissertation defense, the my advisor, I I knew I'd already passed. That's why I was feeling cheeky enough to say it. Because what did you learn? I was like, I learned that I wasn't good enough at this stuff, right? Wow. But by then I'd switched to over the prior year, I'd started doing some derivatives modeling work, you know, some options modeling, modeling multi-d things like that. Got interested in macroeconomic stuff, you know, I was at a shop convex capital management before this that got folded into Carson almost exactly seven years ago. So I've I started getting LinkedIn messages two weeks ago. I was like, what is going on? And then so basically LinkedIn is like, congratulations on your seven-year anniversary. Carson was like, oh, okay. All right, I guess it's been seven years. That's when I it hit me. But speaking of your four-year anniversary, when you joined, the Dow was at I just looked it up. It was at 31,000. It's at 53,000. Right? And you get to, I bet it took a very long time to get from let's say 10,000 to 31,000. But 31,000 to 53,000 in four years is pretty incredible, right? And even over the last three and a half years, so this is not quite four years, and you know, tying this to markets, the SP 500, Ryan, is up 105% over the last three and a half years. If you think of what happened three just before three and a half years ago, that was the end of the bull, end of the bear market, October 12th, the bear market ended, and then we got a rally. We got chat GPT came out that November. That's the you know, you could say, okay, maybe that was the start of the AI wave. But you start from January 1st, 2023, through June 30th, 2026, three and a half years, SP 500 total return up 105%. The market's doubled in three and a half years. That is incredible. And we can put this chart up going back to what's driven those returns, right? Where do those returns, where did that 105% come from? Right, when you break it down into earnings growth, multiple expansion, and dividends. Multiple expansion, going back to your point about this is not a valuation-driven rally, contributed about a quarter of that. Out of 105%, it was about 27 percentage points. Earnings, right? Earnings growth contributed 69 percentage points to their total return. And dividends contribute another 10%, 10% points. Don't sweat dividends. I mean, dividends matter, the 10 percentage points in three and a half years is pretty good. And but that's also sort of like profits. It's profits returned to shareholders, right? So basically, you know, three-quarters of the return. And the return has been massive, it's double. Three quarters of that has come from profits, right? And out of the profits, 69 percentage points, margin expansion has contributed about half of that. That is an incredible story. For me, that is a chart. If you ask me, pick a, you know, what is a chart that tells you what happened in markets, the story of markets over the last three, four years. I mean, I could show a chart of the SP fire and say it's doubled, but no, I think margin expansion is a story.

SPEAKER_00 36:39

And I mean, just to chime in, just it's like okay, margin expansion. Sure, sure. I can't tell everyone how many times the last three and a half years we've been told margins have to go down. Margins have no way they can keep going up. We mentioned last week with Micron. I'm going by memory here, everybody, but their their gross margins were like 75%. They said next quarter is going to be 74%. That's even higher than anything NVIDIA did in early 2025 when their margins kind of peaked, you know, their margin is still strong. So that's just an incredible story. And I mean, and then you know, I call this the Michael Jordan kind of syndrome, where I've used this before, but for the new listeners, you know, everyone points out all these flaws. Well, if you take this out, if you take out that margin expansion from AI, if you take out all the AI spending, if you take out, you know, this or that, yes, if you take Michael Jordan off the bulls, they don't win six championships. I agree. But you know what? He was on the bulls. He was there. And in bull markets, I mean, shout out to Jeff Saud. I know he's had some health issues. Uh, Jeff Saud says surprises in a bull market happen to the upside. I love that quote. I love that. We have been in a bull market. You and I have said extensively for years, and I've no I've sound like a broken record. And spoiler alert, when you read our mid-year outlook, there's another section on this. The bull market is still younger than you think. This bull market's not even four years old. Somebody's gonna write on your grave at some point, Ryan permable. Well, and I don't talk about that in a second. I'll talk about that. But anyway, but like, yes, I am a permable in a secular bull market. I think we've been in a secular bull market for a very long time. I've talked about that. Belski, Belsky's been talking about those things. That means you can't have a down year. So since 2013, basically. That's what I say. I say, I say March of 2013 when the SP 500 broke out to new highs. If it's 13 years ago and nowhere, that kicked off a new secular bull. And go look at your history books, everybody. These secular bulls last a decade plus. Well, we're, you know, we're obviously more than that in, but they usually last many, many years. So we're still there. Now, some kind of perma bowl. I want to point this out. At the start of this year, yes, we came into the year saying, hey, maybe 15% SP 500 if things go right. In February and March, I was out there on TV. We were on this podcast. I used the word banana peel sell-off. Worry about, not worry, be open to a banana peel sell-off sometime in February and March. We had a 9.1% sell-off. Everybody freaked out, everybody got all worried. We doubled down, if you will, at the end of March with this bull, with saying it's still a bull market, and the world's not going to end, even though a lot of people were saying that that we had the largest second quarter rally ever. And we talked on this very podcast about the June swoon. The second half of June historically can be pretty weak. You know what happened? SB was down like seven out of eight days, now five days in a row. We had a June swoon, Sony. We had that. We had it. Everybody got all burned up, everybody got all worried. And then sure enough, what did we just see in some of the sentiment poll data? AAII sentiment poll, the largest drop in bowls or second largest drop in bowls in like a year and a half. The NAAIM active managers, one of the largest weekly drops they've ever had in equity exposure as well, going back several years. So we had the standard June swoon. We had the standard kind of pullback that you tend to see. Our friend Jeff Hirsch, I've quoted Jeff a lot, but it must mean I'm a fan of his. Um, over at um Stock Traders Allback said, listen, the June swoon's a good thing. You want a June swoon because it refreshes everything, gets everybody bared up. And then you have earnings coming out in July, which probably better expected. And then you have July, which up 11 years in a row, 13 out of 14. Who knows? I think it'll be probably 12. Um, you know, I don't think the summer rally's over. Um, but but those are some things we're thinking about. But again, to say we're just permables, I mean, we've been out there saying expect some volatility. Expect this stuff. You know what, everybody? I bet we have a five to eight percent pullback some point in August, September, October. I know. I wish I had the exact date also. But you tend to have some volatility, a little bit of indigestion ahead of the election. I think so. Do I'm gonna go on record and you know, hey, I've been wrong before, so I'll be wrong again. Uh by the way, I was on CNBC one time, right ahead of the U.S. debt downgrade, saying everything's fine, and like four days later we're down 20%. So trust me, I I've been wrong before. Um they're like, We're not having you back now for the last year. Now I'm a contributor, go figure. Uh, but anyway, um, but the real anyway, we came back from it. But the reality, um, oh, I just lost my train of thought. What was I talking about? I totally lost my train of thought. I was, I was on a roll there. I don't know what I was talking about. No, that things are low. Sorry, sorry, how we're not permables. Sorry, that's what I was gonna say. Uh, on this podcast, we're talking about that, right? And now I'm saying the fact that we probably will have a five to eight percent pullback. Uh oh, here's where I was going with it. Sorry, I talked long enough, it finally pops back in my old brain there and the old noggin up there. Um, 9.1% peak trough fraction earlier this year is what we saw. I am of the opinion that's probably the most we're gonna see this year. Trust me. I could be wrong here. But you know, but what doesn't mean we can't have a five to eight or five to eight percent pullback, and I would love that. I think that'd be really good. Get everybody all worked up, you've had that election, get the election out of the way, and then keep riding the wave, and we continue to have um upward, upward bias, upward momentum. So no, I've got a hard eight minutes. I have a hard eight minutes. I want I've gone for a while. What do you want to talk about the next eight minutes?

SPEAKER_02 41:33

You know, I'll pick up on what you said. You want leaders to lead. You probably know where I'm going with this, right? You want leaders to lead. And you can't just say, oh, you got to take the best player out and then like then look at it. No, it doesn't work that way. Sorry. Right? AI is a big story now. AI is leading the way. You want that to continue, right? And yeah, like I said, my worry is if that breaks down, it is not just a breakdown in one corner of the equity market, it's a breakdown in the macro economy too, and large parts of it, right? Somebody is like, uh-oh, are we not spending as much on you know data centers anymore? Or like the the ripple effects across the board. But speaking of not showing up, you know, uh you're gonna do it?

SPEAKER_00 42:16

Are we ripping the band-aid off? It took us how long have we been doing this? I don't know, 40 minutes or something. I don't know.

SPEAKER_02 42:21

Yeah, now the US didn't show up yesterday. That was it. I mean, look, the World Cup comes once in four years. That's it, that's the thing, right? I mean,

World Cup Heartbreak And Leadership

SPEAKER_02 42:29

every loss, whether it's in a Super Bowl, you know, championship or NBA final, it's crushing, right? But there is, you know, you there is the next year. You come back. Mostly the same set of players, right? Same coach, same team, managers, all of that. The World Cup comes around only four years, right? That's what's crushing about it. It comes around four years. You have, and when it's at home, you have much bigger advantages, whether you're in Mexico, the US, or whether it's in Morocco, whether it's in England, wherever it's a home field advantage is massive, right? But the World Cup's about, you know, it comes in one wanted four years. One team comes off the pitch, they show up, they leave the pitch with you know, crying with joy. The other team leaves with heartbreak, probably forever. Our goalkeeper is probably I feel for him, but you know, he he must have he's probably gonna be crushed. I I I just feel so like uh and but our big players didn't show up, right? And and you know, and there's Messi showing up for Argentina, Holland showing up for Norway, right? Harry Cade and Jude Bellingham showed up the last week against in that incredible match against Mexico and at the Azteca, everything was against the English there, but they showed up right literally you got 80,000 people. I know how many people it was against the English.

SPEAKER_01 43:50

Oh, yeah.

SPEAKER_02 43:50

We had so much a home field advantage. I TV of favorites to win. Belgium showed up, they played really well, they played a personality, they were dynamic. Our team just like it looked like you know, a high school team. I was like, Wait, what is even happening here? But you know, that's that's the world cup. You win some, you lose some, but you know, when you lose, you gotta wait a long time to come back.

SPEAKER_00 44:13

Oof, no, that's true. I mean, yeah, I I watched the game and I I'm not A soccer you know expert by any means, but it just seemed like we were like jet lagged, seemed like we were kind of running through quicksand a little bit. I mean, they it's almost like they were playing with nothing to lose. Maybe they were mad about the whole red card drama. I don't I don't know. You gave maybe gave them extra momentum. You know, that's that's uh you know, you watch enough sports. I mean, coaches use anything you need for that uh edge to make you a little angrier and want to play just that much harder, even though you're playing for yourself, you're playing for your country, but still, you know, you don't want to beat that person that's across from you. So it was uh it was good. So let's put it on record. Um, who's winning it all, though? Now that US is out, who's winning it?

SPEAKER_02 44:49

I I mean look at the teams where the big players are showing up. I think France, uh my call is for by the way, even on the compound I mentioned, I think France takes it all. You did their big players are showing up. Kelly Mbappe is showing up. I mean, you know, people are before the tournament, they're like, he's not playing that well for those clubs, he's selfish. He puts a blue jersey on, jersey for France, he's a change player. He's showing up, Messi showing up, and it's not like you can say, Oh, Argentina would suck without Messi. It goes back to where we talk about markets. Well, you can't do that. He's playing, he's there. He said, Can't take that out. Same thing applies to markets. It is, you know, we see a lot of breath, there's a lot of AI stuff happening. You can't just say, Oh, take AI out.

SPEAKER_00 45:32

Um is Messi is Messi 40. How old is he? He's 39. 39. That's incredible. And Ronaldo's 40, then is he learning? Ronald's at 40 or 41.

SPEAKER_02 45:41

Cristiano's, he's out. I'm speaking as somebody who didn't, you know, he's one of the best players of all time. I'm a Messi fan, you know, admittedly. But I'm kidding, you have to acknowledge Cristiano's an amazing player. He won the European Championships for Portugal, but you know, the World Cup was just not his show, and he's been around since 2006, so he's played in multiple World Cups, six World Cups. Yep, but Messi showed up, he's won the World Cup, greatest of all time, and Cristiano's not quite there, I think. I mean, you know, you may get a lot of negative comments now from Cristiano Ronaldo fans, but but yeah, I'm still a little crushed by you know I I think it was it it'll be fine if you lose. Like Mexico, I think obviously lost against England. That's crushing it sure for Mexican fans. Oh yeah. But they showed up. Right? England showed up in a bigger way. I feel like the US, we didn't show up.

SPEAKER_00 46:33

No, I think you're right. Four to one, and just the way that went, it was um well, it's sports. It's only one there's only one happy fan base when it's all done. I mean, as an Ohio State fan, I've been spoiled. I've got to win a couple of national championships, but boy, it's uh that's about it. It's it's pretty rare. So enjoy it while you can. All right, so I do good memories overall. I mean, the US team did well. I mean, we are you and you and your daughter got to go see the orange win down in Houston a few weeks ago.

SPEAKER_02 46:58

And speaking of, look, the US did better than Germany, Brazil. I I mean Brazil lost in the round at 16. We are amongst the 16 best teams in the world. I was hoping we'd get to the top eight. Not meant to be, you know, but I do think we have a good team. We have the makings of a good team, it's still a young team. Fingers crossed, you know, the next uh four years from now, 2028, you and I will still be doing this and talking about the World Cup and where is it?

SPEAKER_00 47:22

Where's the World Cup in four years?

SPEAKER_02 47:24

Spain, Portugal, and Morocco. So they're having some games in South America too, like an opening game in Argentina. You're going, aren't you? I don't know. I don't know. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I may drag you to one of these to go.

SPEAKER_00 47:36

Hey, those sound like fun places to go. Maybe go to Spain or something. Which speaking of my four-year anniversary, I know um at five years you get like a month sabbatical. Carson gives you a month sabbatical. I'm already planning my maybe like next August, I'll take like a month sabbatical. So I warn everybody now there's gonna be some crazy, you know what happened when I'm if I'm on the road, it's like Sonu take in sabbatical. And when the when the um, oh what was it? The yin carry trade on wine went crazy, markets crashing, and Sonu's like, I don't think so. Yeah, you did a call, you jumped on a call. All right. Well, I have um a pretty hard stop. Sonu, in like, I don't know, 90 seconds. What do you want to finish this week's podcast with? We did the only other big data point that came out is the uh payrolls. Data was mixed. We didn't even talk about that. Let's talk about payrolls. But

Payrolls Takeaways And Wrap-Up

SPEAKER_00 48:21

that's okay. Look, if the market isn't we'll we'll talk labor market a lot more next week.

SPEAKER_02 48:25

Yeah, yeah. But the big picture there is look, the labor market is okay. There's no big reacceleration, but the big picture is it's much better than it was a year ago. Layoffs are still low, hiring is a bit better, the unemployment rate, which is probably the best indicator of what's happening in the economy, down to 4.2%. We can quibble about why it went down, things like that. But the reality is it's at 4.2% historically low unemployment rate. Did I do good there? 90 seconds?

SPEAKER_00 48:52

I mean, that was even faster. That was pretty good. So no, I just I zone out like, ah, he's not he's not gonna go too long. That was a subtle thing Bert taught me many years ago. Not necessarily with you, but I have some guys in the past life that like to talk a lot. He's like, just do a little bit like hey, in 60 seconds, in 30 seconds. So I've I've picked that up from Bert. It's a little bit of like, just get your answer out, you know. Now that you're doing media, we'll talk you're you're in Yahoo yesterday, and you gotta be quick. You know, they don't like long answers. They want a quick answer. Like I said, now they put anyone on. That's true. Well, I know the bottom of the barrel, but you know what? That's all right. No, well, listen, everybody. Uh Sonu, thanks as always, Podpony. Thank you, our producer, for doing this. Episode 195 um is in the books. We've got next week is gonna be our mid-year outlook. It's gonna be a fun discussion on what just happened and where we see the second half of the year. And then we have, I mean, you just want to say who it is. Uh yeah, I mean, and we'll keep it quiet. We'll keep yeah, we'll be next week outside in two weeks, though. We have literally you know what? Here, here's how you can figure it out. Literally, this guy joined us last year. We had the most YouTube views all last year. Okay, so if you want to do a little work, you can find exactly what I'm talking about. That's who's gonna join us in two weeks. So he's a crowd favorite, uh, amazing friend as well. That's in two weeks. Talk technicals a little bit. That's all I'm gonna say. Um, but listen, everybody, thank you so much. And we have a lot of new listeners. Give us a like, give us a follow, give us a positive review, give us a negative review. We can't leave the witness. And we also like YouTube comments as well. So feel free and give uh how Sonu was right or wrong with what he just talked about for some of the greatest soccer players of all time. Everybody, I have to go do a webinar. Sonu, you probably have to do something. I don't know. It's been a crazy morning. Um, I go to New York on Thursday to run around and do some media stuff for our Outlook again, which is officially released to our financial advisors this Thursday. Uh, but we're gonna release it to the whole world the following week, and we will talk about it on facts versus feelings next week. See you right a then. Thank you. Take care. Goodbye. Information provided on facts versus feelings with some of our geeks and Ryan Dietrich are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. The statements and opinions of show guests may not be reflective of CWM LLC or its affiliates. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All industries are unmanaged and may not be invested in directly. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. To determine what may be appropriate for you, consult with your attorney, accountant, financial, or tax advisor prior to investing. Guests on facts versus feelings are not affiliated with CWM L L C