Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese
This podcast takes a deep dive into the market-moving events to cut through the noise and help you identify what really matters. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, and is a product of the Carson Investment Research Team.
The information included herein is for informational purposes and is intended for use by advisors only, and should not be copied, reproduced, or re-distributed without the consent of CWM, LLC. Carson Partners offers investment advisory services through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Coaching and CWM, LLC are separate but affiliated companies and wholly-owned subsidiaries of Carson Group Holdings, LLC. Carson Coaching does not provide advisory services.
Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese
JC Parets Returns (FvF Ep. 197)
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In this episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese welcome back JC Parets, founder of Trend Labs (formerly of All Star Charts), for a wide ranging conversation on market breadth, momentum, and where the "dumb money" is currently making its biggest mistakes. JC walks through his deductive approach to markets, using breadth data like the NYSE advance decline line and the percentage of Russell 3000 stocks above their 200 day moving average to systematically rule out a bear market thesis, the same way a sommelier deduces a wine varietal.
The conversation covers the dollar's surprising resilience as a headwind, the extreme dispersion between software and semiconductor stocks, why crypto and tokenized equities represent "the future of finance" rather than nothing of value, and why the S&P Bank Index breaking out above its 2007 highs is one of the most underappreciated bullish signals in the market. JC and Sonu also debunk the margin debt to GDP scare narrative, put leveraged ETF flows in perspective, and discuss portfolio construction through uncorrelated strategies rather than benchmark chasing. They close out with career advice on social media, JC's favorite cities to visit, and a debate over India's food scene.
[Key Takeaways]
- The NYSE advance decline line closed at an all time high, and the percentage of Russell 3000 stocks above their 200 day moving average is at cycle highs, both inconsistent with bear market conditions, which require broadening weakness across new lows, not just a handful of names.
- Despite a rallying dollar this year, equities have held up well; a dollar rollover (speculators are currently net long and near extremes) could act as a tailwind for risk assets, emerging markets, and Latin America.
- Correlation between software stocks and the broader technology index fell to near zero (versus a typical ~70), an extreme unwind that's now driving a "catch up" rotation back into software as some semiconductor strength cools.
- The S&P Bank Index just broke out above its 2007 Great Financial Crisis highs, alongside breakouts in mid cap financials, small cap financials, and European financials, a broad based signal JC argues is very difficult to reconcile with an imminent recession.
- Margin debt scares are overstated when framed against GDP; relative to total stock market value, leverage is near multi decade lows, and leveraged ETF products remain a rounding error (about 0.25%) of total market size.
- Small cap and large cap value are hitting new multi month relative highs versus growth, offering a potential diversifier to a volatile, whipsaw prone momentum factor.
Jump to:
0:00 - Welcome And Price As Proof
2:54 - Breadth Signals Still Say Bull
9:01 - Bitcoin Bets And Dollar Tailwinds
10:52 - Tech Dispersion And Software Catch-Up
12:53 - Crypto Rails And Tokenized Stocks
15:58 - Financials Breakout Challenges The Bears
24:59 - Margin Debt Myths And Leverage Reality
30:02 - Momentum Whiplash And Value Diversifiers
34:06 - From All-Star Charts To Trend Labs
39:40 - Uncorrelated Strategies Beat Benchmark Anxiety
42:56 - Technician Mentors And Who To Follow
48:00 - Social Media That Builds Careers
55:18 - Crack Spreads And Energy Signals
58:31 - Gratitude And Final Takeaways
Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick
Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en
Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
Welcome to the Facts versus Feelings Podcast. I'm your host, Ryan Dietro, and I'm joined by my co-host, Sony Varky. Coming through the noise, we've got Ryan Dietrock, Chief Market Strategist, and Sony Varky, Chief Macro Strategist, taking out the board and helping investors focus on what really matters. Well, everybody, you're in for a treat. This latest episode of Facts versus Feelings is bringing back a fan favorite. We were joined by JC Pretz, the founder at over at Trend Labs. It was an amazing conversation. Without leading the witness too much, Zone, did you learn something? Always. Yeah.
SPEAKER_00It's just fun to hang out with JC. But no, he tells it like it is, right? He keeps it real. I think that's how I would describe it. And you know, the nice thing is as he's, you know, you you'll hear the conversation. You know, when he thinks about facts, he focuses on price. Price is a facts. That's what I really loved. I mean, you know, if you own one fact for markets, look at the price. That's it. No, exactly.
SPEAKER_01I don't think we need any more intro than that. You guys are gonna love this one. Uh, everyone, there's a reason JC brings a lot of views and a lot of opinions, uh, because he's really, really good at it. Without further ado, here is episode 197 of Facts vs. Feelings. And backed by extremely popular demand, the world's most I was gonna make a joke about Jeff DeGraff, but uh, we didn't get Jeff. He was busy. So we have the next best thing. JC Peretz is back. JC Peretz returns to Facts versus Feelings, episode 197. JC, how are we doing? Listen, if I if I can be second to Jeff DeGraff, I'm good with that.
SPEAKER_02Like, I'm good with that.
SPEAKER_00All right. You're right up there. Have a look. Thank you for coming, JC. Oh, you do it?
SPEAKER_02Thank you. Thank you for uh thank you for having me. We've done this before. Uh, it's a lot of fun. You know, um, you guys tell me about the videos that we do, so there's a lot of pressure on this one. So let's try not to screw it up, you know.
SPEAKER_01I I know. I said we've done well, we do 52 of these a year. We do once a week. Yeah, we just we just do it. We don't take any weeks off on facts versus feelings anymore. Maybe we record early if it's a holiday, but we don't take any weeks off. Every Wednesday you get this. And JC, we did 52 last year. No pressure, but on the YouTube channel, your appearance literally was the most views out of every single one we did. More than Cliff Astness, more than Dr. Jeremy Siegel, more than all of them. I mean, you name it. You are more than all of them. So wow.
SPEAKER_02That that's really something. Some of them were humans too. A few, you know, there's a lot of bots in those numbers, you know?
SPEAKER_01Yeah.
SPEAKER_02There's a denominator fallacy.
SPEAKER_01I mean, there's all kinds of shenanigans taking place. We'll do the best we can. How's that? Yeah. Yeah. Denominator blindness is taking over. Let's just, you know, we've mixed up a little bit. Usually we do small talk, but let's just start. Is this still a bull market? Equities in U.S.
SPEAKER_02still a bull market. I mean, U.S.
SPEAKER_01market. I know you look at all the other markets. U.S. bull market. I mean, I guess bull market in what, right? But you go. He knows what I'm at.
SPEAKER_02I mean, it's it's hard. What's the alternative? To suggest that it's a bear market? Like, you know, so I don't I'm not really seeing a lot of evidence of it being a bear market. So, first of all, you know, in order to have a bear market, and this is just math, you need stocks to go down in price to have a bear market. Right? In a bull market, stocks are going up in price, right? Like just very generally speaking. I think we can all agree on that, right? Now in order to have stocks going down in price, right? It's not just one or two stocks, it's more and more and more stocks going down in price and seeing stocks making new 20-day lows, new 60-day lows, new 120-day lows, new 52-week lows. Those numbers are high across the gambit. And as that progresses, you'll see it in the three-month low list, six-month low list. You'll see it progress, ultimately getting to the 52-week low list. And that's what you see in bear markets, right? So if we know that, why don't we ask the question, hey, are we seeing those things? And the answer is no. The answer is no, we are not seeing those things. In fact, we are actually seeing the exact opposite. The advanced decline line on the New York Stock Exchange closed last week at the highest levels ever. This is a running total of advancers minus decliners. This is a cumulative number. And it's closed at the highest levels ever on Friday. So we have that start, not something you see.
SPEAKER_01Podpony, let's throw that one up. The advanced decline line on the New York Stock Exchange. Go ahead. So what so one more time, uh some more listeners to know tacticals. What does that mean, JC? A new high on the NYSC advanced decline line. What does that mean again? Listen, don't phone me on the spot. I'm not like Mr.
SPEAKER_02Indicator mathematical formula guy, but basically you're taking it. I guess your way through it's going up minus the ones going down, and you're adding it to the number that you had before.
SPEAKER_03Yeah.
SPEAKER_02Or subtracting it, right? Depending on the situation, right? So that's that's how the that's how the math works. And it's at the highest levels ever for the New York Stock Exchange, which to me, to me, the New York Stock Exchange is the most important collection of equities in the world. It is the most important exchange in the world. That nobody can argue that. I couldn't even tell you what the second most important exchange is. Probably the NASDAQ. But nevertheless, the New York Stock Exchange, the stocks that trade there, you know, to me, when we talk about market breadth, when we talk about the universe, that's got to be a universe that we want to lean on heavily because you're not, you're not just getting American companies, you're getting broader exposure to international equities, you're getting a lot more cyclical exposure. You're not getting humongous tech companies, right? Which other indexes is that? And uh, so the New York Stock Exchange, which by the way, Taiwan Semi trades in the New York Stock Exchange, there are technology stocks in there. So you're getting a big group uh of equities to lean on. The Russell 3000 is another one. You had the highest number of Russell 3000 stocks above their 200-day moving average that we've seen, you know, this cycle. So, like, you know, that's going up as well. So none of those to me are characteristics of any kind of bear market. So I use a deductive method when it comes to approaching the marketplace in a very similar way to in the wine world, right? I'm a certified sommelier and you you deduce what the wine is, right? When you're doing blind wine tasting, if you see a red wine, it's probably not a Chardonnay. It's probably not a Pinot Grigio because it's a red wine. So you can already eliminate all of those things, right? And then you deduce from there based on the smell and the alcohol and all those things of what it could possibly be, right? But right off the bat, the white dude's white, okay. It's a white wine, it ain't a cabernet, right? It's not a Syrah, it's not a Pinot, right? You can already eliminate a whole bunch. So when I see a new all-time high in the advanced decline line on the New York Stock Exchange, a new high in the percentage of stocks in the Russell 3000 above their 200-day moving average, probably not a Chardonnay.
SPEAKER_00I feel like you should have bought some bottles of wine right now, but I'm gonna let you last wine.
SPEAKER_01Well, another wrong with drinking wine on a Monday at noon. Is it Monday at noon? I've been in this chair for seven hours. I had CBC a long time ago. Two things for me, then Sonu jumped in. Uh, I just got an alert. Apparently, my boys just ordered $47 a DoorDash. I ran downstairs. I knew I had this listed, whatever. Get yourself food. So we're trying to keep the economy going. Jason. You know, he's old enough to do that. And secondly, Sonu is actually, we might have talked about this last time, but we're bringing it up again. Sonu's allergic to wine. So you keep saying these words, he might start breaking out just hearing about wine.
SPEAKER_00So how allergic is allergic? I'll I'll tell you this. I know more about advanced decline lines, but just to say not much than wines. So listen, the why is wine is a beautiful thing.
SPEAKER_02We're doing the same thing as technicians. I remember I was the first day of Somalier school in uh Reno, Nevada. Terrible place. But anyway, the biggest little city.
SPEAKER_01The biggest little city, right? Isn't it called the biggest little city? I think it was a big deal.
SPEAKER_02Dude, I don't know. There were some degenerates there, like with like the gas things so that they could breathe, and they're like in the slots. I was like, this place is depressing. Anyway, so the uh the Somalier, the intro to Somalier, I'm in there, and then you know, all what's cool about the process is you're always dealing with master songs, where there's only a few hundred of them in the whole world. So you're really dealing with the best of the best. And they're talking about the deductive method. I'm like, holy shit, these guys are technical analysts, they're doing the same thing that we do, right? And so, like, I was able to pick up on it. Uh, you know, I was like, wow, we're doing the same thing.
SPEAKER_00It's like nothing.
SPEAKER_02Following out a bear market, is my point, is my answer.
SPEAKER_00Got it. I have a question. Last time, you this is my favorite thing anyone's ever said on these podcasts, which is, you know, we were talking about trends, and I was asking you why don't people follow trends and momentum? You're like, people are stupid.
SPEAKER_02I think it's a few more crazy. I think it's a few more crazy. Me, that too. Not so much that they're stupid, it's that they act irrational.
SPEAKER_00They're crazy. People are crazy. So, where are you saying stupid stuff right now? Where are you seeing people acting stupid right now?
SPEAKER_02The speculator position in Bitcoin is really interesting, right? Super crazy net long positions, and um hedgers are super short, and the hedgers have been right. Um, seeing the speculators making moves there in the dollar, right? Uh it's getting a little silly there on the dollar index. So if you get if that unwinds and the hedgers are right, and you, you know, these are not big tops and euro and and and sterling and some of these, and and yen or what all that, and you start to get a rally in these things, you know, some strength that we're seeing in some of the emerging market currencies relative to those developed, uh, I think is interesting. If the dollar rolls over here and those uh speculators are wrong, which they tend to be at extremes, then uh I think you got a pretty decent tailwind there for some risk assets. Metals will probably do well, Latin America will probably do well.
SPEAKER_00Seeing some strength, equities too, right? The dollar going down?
SPEAKER_02I think so. Equities in general, sure. Yeah, I think that's a tailwind. We'll be really impressed with how well stocks have done despite a rising dollar this year.
SPEAKER_01So let's put that dollar chart up. I know that's one we sent Pod Pony says US dollar index, the Dixie. Um, you know, again, we're showing a JC the chart you shared the other day on uh X slash Twitter. So if it breaks out, that's maybe net bearish or is assets, but rules over getting bullish. I think that'd be a problem.
SPEAKER_02You know, when you talk about dollar wrecking ball, you know, you can argue be like, listen, stocks have done just fine while the dollar's been rallying, right? So, like, you know, is this is a stronger dollar so bad? I think to a certain extent, and we've seen it. And I gotta take, I gotta flip that on its head and say, you know, if you would have told me the dollar would have done what it did, you know, how our equities are responding, I would have said probably not as well as what we've seen. So I'm actually pretty impressed with that resilience. And now, if you get that dollar rollover, that acts as a tailwind for equities, there's your back half of the year rally.
SPEAKER_01Yo, one more I'm gonna jump in, Soda, then you can come in after this. You you shared, and we're gonna share it now on the uh on YouTube, Barron's software's hard truth, right? Everybody all of a sudden realized how poorly software's doing at the start of the year. Microsoft held like its worst quarter ever, Microsoft down 25%. That's all you knew. You probably think the market would do it a little worse. Uh, but software's hanging in there. Mag 7 quietly the last month, SP's exactly flat. Mag 7 is up 5%. Not saying that's great, but you know what? No one's talking about it because everybody called it the lag 7 three weeks ago. Kick it when it's down. What's your thoughts on software? Mag 7 kind of taking the baton back.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I mean, you're seeing the relative strength, you're seeing that rotation. I mean, the dispersion within technology was off the charts. And I'm sure you guys have run the numbers. I'm sure you could tell me more, but I could just using common sense, I would venture to say it was probably pretty out of control. I saw some of the uh correlation numbers between uh technology stocks and software stocks relative to technology as an index near zero, where it's usually near 70. Like, just like what? And so from those extremes come unwinds, and it doesn't mean that you need to have losers, you just have to have underperformers for the catch up, and you're seeing the software catching up and semiconductors coming off. You're still seeing resiliency out of some of the uh hardware and equipment stuff, which is interesting, but that alligator mouth is like closing, if you will, in that. And I think that there's legs there and software, and some of the some of them are uh are gonna prove that they got hit for no reason. They threw the baby out with the bath water or whatever it is they say. And there's gonna be some of those that are gonna come back with a vengeance, and there's gonna be some, maybe like Intuit or something. Uh, I'm not I'm not picking on Intuit specifically, I'm just give using as an example. Maybe AI really did kill, you know, internet accounting or whatever. I don't have no idea. But I'm just using that as an example. Like internet accounting might be dead, and then some other thing like uh Salesforce might be fine. I don't have no idea. But you know, like I think that there's gonna be bifurcation in the outcomes here.
SPEAKER_00Yeah. What do you make of crypto? Because so we were on the compound and Michael Backnick brought this up with respect to software as well. He was like, oh, crypto is the software. I'm curious how you think about it. And does that, you know, speaking of that alligator jaw, you know, rich assets, you know, like you said, we've been in a bull market, but crypto hasn't sort of participated. You think that comes back? What do you think is happening with crypto?
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I mean, generally that those relationships even came off some, but I I tend to think that just bigger picture when you zoom out, if software stocks are gonna come back, crypto's probably gonna come back too, Bitcoin's gonna come back. You know, I'm just fascinated by just all the rails of blockchain, to be perfectly honest with you. You know, as somebody who's had a front row seat to how Wall Street works for a long time, I mean, I'm on year 24 of my career. Where are you guys now? I'm at 21. You're 21? Yeah, I'm 21.
SPEAKER_01Um, 99 is when I got the bug. So yeah, I'd say I started around then.
SPEAKER_02It's a few more years than me. So yeah. So, like, you know, I mean, when I when I see people like, oh, crypto didn't build anything. Like, nobody ever never did anything. It's like you're missing the point. They built the future of finance, right? And like that's where we're going. And we're getting the tokenization of all of these individual equities, which is amazing because now it opens up the rest of the world, can now participate in the greatest companies in the world, a ma big American companies. Anyone in the world with an internet access can now invest in those companies when before they couldn't, which is fascinating. And now flip that on its head. Now you got Americans that could do the same thing in international companies that before they did not have access to or we did not have access to. Most recent examples in South Korea, of course, where you could we couldn't participate in those. And then they got some tokens. But I mean, it goes Indian companies and you know, companies all over the world that it's impossible for American investors to be able to participate in that growth. That changes that now. And there's just more global liquidity, I think, on a net basis, that's a win. And I I want to ask you guys, I mean, we're not no gun your head, like it's just for fun, but like I think about the day where tokenized stocks have more volume on a given day than stocks that trade on traditional exchanges. I wonder when that day will come. Uh, my guess is April the 20th of 2031.
SPEAKER_01Okay. You ever thought of that, Sonu? I don't know if we've thought of that one, JC. I don't know. Yeah, very much. Yeah, it is.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. Because I think it's coming. And I've been saying it, and we're seeing it. And so who are the biggest winners here? It's like, okay, great, let's just say that's the case. Who wins? How do we make money off of it? There's companies that I mean, Bank of New York Mellon is one of the oldest. I mean, it was like the second stock ever or something like that, right? And um they they are clearing all of this stuff, right? So, like, they're just like it seems to be like a clear winner, Bank of New York Mellon. And um, you know, I just think the financial system wins. I mean, the the bank index right now is breaking out to new all-time highs. SP bank index just now, this month is breaking out or last month above the great financial crisis highs. Like it's literally called the great financial crisis. It was pretty great if you were short. It was horrible if you were not, and you were a bag holder. Bear Stearns gone, Merrill Lynch gone. I mean, just Wacovia gone countrywide. The guy with the tan, gone. This guy's tan was like so new. Remember that guy? What was his name?
SPEAKER_01Yeah, yeah.
SPEAKER_02What was that guy? Not an Indian guy, by the way.
SPEAKER_01Not no.
SPEAKER_02He was just like a Greek go with a crazy tan.
SPEAKER_01I'll look it up in a second. Let's put that up on the YouTube channel. SP Bank Index, the KBE. And I guess, I mean, hopefully, this is in some compliance thing. We're gonna talk about a lot of stocks. JC's gonna give his opinion on a lot of stuff. Carson doesn't agree with anything JC says. Maybe we do, but we gotta say that. None of it? Yeah, well, I think we're supposed to say that. I think we're supposed to say we agree.
SPEAKER_00That's not a recommendation. That's not a recommendation, and we we can't say whether we agree or disagree.
SPEAKER_01So let's talk about facts only.
SPEAKER_02There's nothing for you to disagree with.
SPEAKER_01Facts only. Yeah, facts versus feelings. Facts only. That can be your new podcast. Facts only. We'll do facts versus feelings.
SPEAKER_02Because we look at price, it's the only fact. You can't argue with what I'm telling you because it's just math.
SPEAKER_01So laying your layering onto that again, banks literally went nowhere since 2007 until just recently, at least in the US. Uh Luigi Mata said the longer, uh, what is it? The bigger the base, the further in space. Well, that's a big base out of banks in general. Uh, we know tech has done great, growth has done great. Is this a sign to you, JC, that let's just say the next two or three years, maybe value, financials, maybe like industrials, take back that baton? How do you think about it? Kind of from a portfolio point of view.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I mean, listen, Luis Yamana, shout out to Luisa Yamana. Here's something else that she said. She also said that the bigger the decline, the longer the time needed for repair is something else that she said. And you saw that tech bubble burst in 2000, and look how long it took for them to ultimately break out again, right? And you saw what happened since. Well, same thing here. Great financial crisis was called the great financial crisis for a reason. It was out of control. I was there, it was wow, man. It was it was chewing some shit, man. Yeah, so it took almost 20 years to correct that because as Luis Yamata said so famously and so many times over many years ago, a long time ago, the bigger the drop, right, the longer the time that's needed for repair. And so we've seen that in the SP bank index, which peaked in January of 07, by the way. January of 07, nine months before the SP 500 peaked, these things were already getting smoked, right? So there was already relative weakness, which here what we're seeing is not relative weakness, uh, this relative strength. The fact that all these banks are breaking out while all some of the other indexes are struggling, that's called relative strength. And the fact that just now, now this is brand new. You're like, oh, it's an old bull market, JC. Oh, JC and Dietrich and Sonu, bunch of permables on a podcast. Right. I get called a perma bear during bear market, so I don't take offense to it.
SPEAKER_01It's one more chart than Sonu jump in. SP mid-cap financials is breaking out as well. So why does that matter? I mean, I know kind of the answer leading the witness, but we're seeing various cap sizes break out, along with, let's put this one up, European financials, put that one up Pod pony as well. So you got European financials, mid-caps, small caps, financials across the border breaking out. What does that tell us?
SPEAKER_02Well, it's not indicative of an increase in financials going down.
SPEAKER_01Yes.
SPEAKER_02So getting back to the deductive method, probably not a cavernet if it's sparkling white, right? Like, you know, it it's again, it I think the bear case, the SP financials, like the the European banks. I mean, that's a I mean, come on, guys. If the world's coming to an end, European banks ain't breaking out to all the time.
SPEAKER_01Greek banks aren't doing that. Yeah.
SPEAKER_02No. Mid-cap financials, mid-cap industrials is really the epicenter, the heart and soul of America. But then just looking at the SP bank index, if you are bearish of equities, if you are part of that two-thirds of US American adults that feel a major recession is around the corner, according to Allianz, if you are one of those two-thirds, if you are more than half of American adults that feel that investing in stocks is a bad idea right now, if you are those people, you people, then I think that it the conversation starts with the SP bank index. Because if that is above those great financial crisis highs, you are wrong. You're wrong. You're just wrong. Is it really true? But you're not, right? I think the bear case starts with a failure there, which is entirely possible because I don't have a crystal ball. I can't tell you what's gonna happen. But I gotta tell you, if the if the financials are above the great financial crisis highs, if that is the case, really, really hard to be overly pessimistic.
SPEAKER_00I mean, we saw that with bank earnings coming out. I mean, not to bring, you know, I'm not a fundamentals guy from that, but I'm not I don't pick stocks, like you know, we look at asset class and things like that. But yeah, like Ryan, you mentioned in a morning call with our advisors this morning, JP Morgan's earnings, Goldman's EPS up 100% year over year. Right? That doesn't happen out of nothing. I mean, they're huge trading volumes, you know, trading profits, huge investment banking profits, MA deals are happening across the country. The IPOs are there. These guys made, I I don't know, was it you know, billion 500 billion or something from you know the IPO?
SPEAKER_01Goldman made 100 million on the SpaceX IPO. And if you look at like the five largest banks, they cash in a cool 49 billion last quarter, 50 billion in trading revenue, JC. I mean, that all that volume, all that stuff going on. Some of these, I know we want to talk more about the leverages out there, but it's just incredible using the F word if we can on this podcast. Fundamentals, they are there. Anything else you want to talk about on on well, Sony, I jumped in.
SPEAKER_00What else you want to talk about? I I think just to the point about banks. I mean, you know, like even on the crypto side, bringing back, you know, something he's Said JC about tokenization and all of that. I feel like the big banks are well positioned to take advantage of that. Again, not a prediction. I don't know whether, you know, which bank it's going to be, I have no idea. But it just seems like you know they're going to ride that train as well.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, no, a hundred percent. And uh I love how Sonu acts like he's not ripping through financial statements on Saturday nights, you know what I'm saying?
SPEAKER_00I would I I I didn't really get an accounting degree, a finance degree in my life, finance course in my life.
SPEAKER_01So I probably trying to say that, but well to Sonu's credit, all he's done for the past month, I don't think he's worked. I mean, I'm gonna call him out on the podcast. It's okay. Um he's just watched nothing but soccer. JC, you happy the soccer's over? You don't worry about it in four years. I know you've got some thoughts. You and you and Sonu might not agree on this. What do you think? And that walk up's over.
SPEAKER_02No, I like to I like to have fun with it because uh, you know, I'm just American and you know, we have other sports here and things like that. Like my my family before going to Cuba was from Spain, like on my mother's side as he's lascied and my father's side. Congrats. I felt nothing. I felt nothing, like I wanted to, like I thought about it. Like I'm technically Spanish. Why do I not care at all? I didn't care. I was kind of rooting for Argentina, to be perfectly honest.
SPEAKER_00Terrible. I mean, I'm not sure.
SPEAKER_02And you know, so like I just don't feel it. Like, I'm more interested in like is LeBron coming to Miami or what? Like, I'm more interested in like I got other priorities, like college football starting now, hurricanes look great. Like, yep, you know, I just I felt nothing. I kind of wish I did, because I I wish I could be happy about something like that, but I just I didn't care. It was really, yeah, it was almost sad. I kind of wish I did care. I just don't well.
SPEAKER_01Sono you're gonna put together a blog on your experiences. When are you gonna have that done? Just some people on the podcast though. Do you ballpark when you think about it?
SPEAKER_00Wednesday, Wednesday morning, you know, CarsonGroup.com slash research, this is which is where we put all our stuff. So all our writing, but yeah, no, I feel a little like wistfulness, I think is the word. It's over four more years, you know. Watch Copa America, Euros, things like that.
SPEAKER_02But what about the Olympics in two years? Do you guys do you ever care about that or no?
SPEAKER_00Not much. I mean, I like watching the hundred meter sprint, and that's about it. I tune in for that and then go away. The World Cup is way more important than the Olympics. Totally, totally. All right, yeah. World Cup, and then you know, oh, what's American?
SPEAKER_02Well, the Olympics is in LA. I don't know if they'll they let you in there.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, no idea. Sony, you know what Sony learned last year, though? He learned that the Chiefs are in the AFC. So we're working with them, JC. We're working with them. You didn't ask me. We're starting something.
SPEAKER_00You know what? I was at the Chiefs stadium, and now I do my next goal, you know, sports-wise, is to go for a Chiefs game. Goodness.
SPEAKER_02I'm dying to go there for a game. I've never been on a road game. I hear it's crazy.
SPEAKER_01We should plan something. Go see Chris, go see Chris Kimball. He's out there. Go see shout out to Chris. Uh so you you shared something that I love this conversation: margin debt. Like uh, like uh the Phoenix, it's just back again. You can't you can't kill it. Margin debt's high, JC. They tell us. Last time margin debt was high, the end of the world. Pod pony, feel free and put the chart up that says margin debt. How do you think about when you keep hearing this like we have for the last 15 years?
SPEAKER_02I think people are crazy. I think they're crazy, man. Like, I think they're they're doing just like there's something wrong with them. I mean, you know, like we know I think we know this, but like, yeah, like think about it. Like, think about what kind of serial killer you need to be to take an absolute number of shares the total dollar amount that's borrowed, right, on the New York Stock Exchange stuck to go mark to borrow so that you can have leverage, right? And then you take that number and you divide it by US GDP. Can't even say it with a straight face. Really? Really? Margin relative to US GDP. What does one have to do with the other? It's like, oh, hey babe, our house is worth twice as much uh this month. Yeah, why? Oh, because of the corn crop in Ohio. Uh what?
SPEAKER_00Divided by GDP.
SPEAKER_02Oh, what?
SPEAKER_00That's funny. Talk about the speaking of crazy, uh the exchange traded products. I think I'm pretty sure I saw it from something you shared. It's Dodd Solon's chart of the exchange traded products, how much are levered exchange traded products are coming to market? It's about 200 billion right now, $500 billion notional, massive explosion in 2025, 2026. It's all levered long products, right? And I was thinking, because we always see this, like people say, oh, you know, consumer sentiment is terrible. But then if you look at the consumer spending numbers, everything looks, you know, like red hot.
SPEAKER_02Oh, you see the hotel and resorts index hitting all-time highs? Yeah, it seems like nobody can afford anything.
SPEAKER_00So it's sort of like watch what they what they do, not what's what they say, right? Same thing at sentiment. Seems like, yeah, it's not that great. But then if everyone's buying all these levered long products, forget set aside South Korea for a moment, right? I'd love to go there, get your take. Seems like look, there's a lot of demand for this stuff, and you know, people are buying this stuff. They want to buy this stuff, they're buying it on single stock. So I'll put things in perspective, right?
SPEAKER_01Well, so one second, JC. Sorry, let me let's put this up on the YouTube channel. Leverage ETP products, courtesy of our friend Todd Soner Strategist. Put that one up there. Go ahead, JC.
SPEAKER_02Shout out to Todd Stone. So we're seeing just explosion in participation in these leveraged vehicles, 200 billion dollars, which sounds like a lot of money, but it isn't. Yeah, it isn't. It's about a quarter of a percent of the size of the stock market.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, set stock markets 70 trillion dollars or something like that.
SPEAKER_02It's really a rounding error. It's it's 10% the value of cryptocurrencies, which just for perspective, is nothing. So this is a rounding error at best. It's because people are like, well, JC, because when you put things in perspective, uh the the you want when you want to look at that margin debt, you want to look at it as a percentage of the the value of the total stock market, like a percentage of what that leverage is buying, not some random other number like US GDP, like one has anything to do with each other. So you want to compare it to the size of the overall market, which is about one and a half percent. It's nowhere near what it was in 07, nowhere near where it was in the 1980s before the 87 crash. Like it is like crazy low numbers. People are like, well, people don't, that's not how people take advantage of the downside with the letter. They're buying the leverage DTFs and dah-da-da. No, they're not because all of them combined don't don't move the needle at all. So the leverage is just not there. Uh, that I think people uh would suggest that there is. Um, you know, and from a sentiment standpoint, you know, sentiment is really good at extremes. You know, it's really helpful at extremes. I don't think we're at either extreme. I think we're probably somewhere in the middle, right? Uh, in terms of sentiment, you know, I don't think we're at crazy bullish extremes by any stretch of the imagination, and I don't think we're at crazy uh bearish extremes. I think there's anecdotes that you could take, and I think it's about you know, some you know, putting it all together, and I think the answer is we're probably somewhere in the middle.
SPEAKER_01So that uh SK Heinex ETF, we can throw that up, leverage shares 2x SK Heinex. We're seeing you know a lot of these on individual companies. So these are like the most volatile companies anyway. I mean, that stock goes all over the place. Now you're adding 2x. Um, you know, I was Sony, you maybe go Soda for a second. I mean, Sona, you and I talked about that this morning with our um uh Carson advisors. What's your thought on all those different ways to play leverage on top of leverage on top of leverage?
SPEAKER_00I mean, for one thing, it's a it it's good revenue for the people putting these things out, exactly. That's what it is, yes, sir. I mean, but of course they wouldn't be putting it out there if there wasn't demand. I mean, South Korea is actually probably the extreme example of this where you get all these, you know, there's a lot of leverage margin, and you know, they're trying to look cut back on that. I mean, essentially it's volatility then, right? So, but then that's what we've talked about. Yes, we like everything in the momentum. We've liked momentum for years now. The momentum factor, it's done well, but it's been going crazy the last three, four, five weeks, up, down, up, down. And every night I was joking that you know, first thing I look at is South Korea. What did South Korea do? That tells me what momentum is going to be.
SPEAKER_02That's not a joke, that's not a joke, Sonu. That's uh a sign of the environment. I was doing the same thing and I was joking about it too, but it wasn't a joke, like that was real life.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I probably copied it from you or something, but anyway, but that that's you know, that that's what's happening. But that's why you need the other side. What is actually done not quite as well as momentum this year? Small value stocks. We were talking about you know, financials and the small banking index. I mean, small value has been doing really well. We were talking just before this call with the team about managing portfolios, how do you want to diversify? Momentum is this volatile without giving too much away, but like, yeah, we like small value. That's how, you know, especially from a long-term perspective, strategic portfolio. I think that's where I want to hold right now. I mean, again, not a recommendation or anything like that. But yeah, I think it's a good diversifier to everything else.
SPEAKER_02Well, hitting new small cap uh growth, uh, small cap value here, hitting new multi-month highs relative to small cap growth. So keep that in mind in the Russell in the Russell 2000. Um, and then when you look at large cap uh value versus large cap growth, you're hitting new 52-week highs, right? So, you know. Back on the SK Heinex, it was pretty funny when we're talking about these leveraged vehicles. You know, in London, there's a triple leverage SK Heinex, right?
SPEAKER_00Okay, I I didn't know that.
SPEAKER_02So if SK Heinex falls by 30%, that's it. You're wiped out. Yep, right? Goes to zero overnight, legitimately. But hold on, it gets better. Wait, there's more. Not only is there a triple leveraged SK Heinex ETF in London, right? Or ETP or whatever, like I know the difference, right? There's a there's a currency hedged version of it where you can get a price in USD, the triple leverage, swear to God. Can't make this up. So good. Come on. So why not?
SPEAKER_00It's probably like 75 basis for its expense ratio or 100 bases for its expense ratio.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, the expense ratio is the least of your problems, Sona.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, but but the the somebody making money on the other side of, you know, yeah, definitely look here already.
SPEAKER_02You know, these these ETF companies are making a sling, all these idiots slinging around these triple leverage vehicles, dude. It's great.
SPEAKER_00I love it. Actually, on that, you know, a lot of our friends, and let's say for their friends that have ETFs now coming out.
SPEAKER_02Do you have an ETF, JC? Or are you? My grandmother's launching an ETF coming up here. Um, yep. She's uh she's very excited about it. Uh she's 96. Uh shout out to Wela coming out with an ETF. Yeah, everybody's got an ETF these days. Um, you know, I listen, obviously, I think about it. Every ETF company and their brothers approached me over the year to launch an ETF and like, you know, you know, it's it's just not it's just not necessary. Um, you know, I'm building out new strategies for my own portfolio. I have, you know, my own basket. You know, I share it with the public, what I'm doing, and like that's just so much easier. I've managed the hedge fund before. I know what it's like. I have a lot of clients that are hedge funds also. You know, for what? You know, and then an ETF, like, you know, what? I raise I raise a billion dollars and I make like a million, million and a half, maybe. Yeah, I don't know. It seems like a lot of work. Uh, I'm not trying to travel. My travel days these days are I've been to New York City five times this year, right? I'm an hour away, so I'm I could go a lot more, but I want to be more, you know, this is the least I've traveled in a long time. And I've traveled, I've gone on a plane like four or five times so far this year. You know, that's light for me. That's the lightest it's been for me in a long, long, long time. Um if I launch, if I launch a fun, if I do, first of all, you do it, I'm not gonna do any TF. I'll do a two in 20 LP, but uh all the traveling and stuff like that, you know, it's not not for me right now in my life, maybe down the road.
SPEAKER_01So let's go there a little bit. Um, most people probably remember you for All-Star Charts, right? Now you're with Trend Labs. Talk about the kind of the evolution and what does Trend Labs do and how does it help our industry and how can people learn more about it?
SPEAKER_02No, thank you. I appreciate it. Listen, All-Star Charts started as a blog back in 2010, like literally just a blog. And very quickly that turned into, you know, I was hosting shows all over TV and getting invited to conferences and universities all over the place, and invites to happy hours and dinners where I met a lot of friends, you guys included, and everything like that over many years. And, you know, sure, it opened up a lot of doors for me business-wise. But I mean, the the friends that I've made along the way, just because I'm just sharing thoughts, sharing ideas, like, man, I will never be able to pay that back. It's been unbelievable the relationships that that's built. And so All-Star Charts ultimately became a premium research company for you know the world's biggest financial institutions, all the way down to individual investors, you know, looking for ideas and perspective on the market. And we were acquired in early 22 by an AI company, uh Tiffin. And so I worked for an AI company for a few years, you know, just running All-Star Charts, helping the robots understand technical analysis, which was, you know, really something. And um, you know, so uh All-Star Charts is now run by Steve Strasza, right? Who's the chief market strategist there? It does a great job. Strasa's absolutely killing it and provides a great service. Where I am in my career, I'm focused on what I'm doing for me and my family and my portfolio, right? So I have kids' college funds that have a fortune in there, which is crazy how much money my kids have in their college funds. These 529s are pretty awesome. Uh, you know, we have our retirement accounts, we own real estate, we have multiple real estate properties. Like, I'm in. I'm in. In in, you know, the stock market goes up, the economy's great, I'm in. And if not, that sucks because I'm gonna lose, right? And there's nothing I can do about it. So with the rest of my time and energy and all the money that I have, I'm trying to do something else, right? So I'm looking for uncorrelated strategies to all of those things, which by the way, I know for a fact I'm not the only person that has retirement accounts, kids' college funds, real estate, and is just exposed on the long side. I'm not the only one. So that's why what I'm doing with additional strategies, I manage two public portfolios and I'm launching a third, is what I'm doing with my money for the reasons that I just shared. I don't have a choice. I have to have uncorrelated strategies to those other things. And I'm sharing those every day uh at Trend Labs, which I don't I don't know any other way. If I'm not blogging and sharing what I'm thinking, I'm gonna go crazy because my wife certainly doesn't give a damn. None of my neighbors or my friends, nobody cares. Nobody cares. You guys care, but like you guys are the exception, right? Um my wife doesn't care. So if I don't have a place to go and share my thoughts, I'm gonna go crazy. So that's that's far part of it too. Maybe that's why people are so crazy. They're not sharing their thoughts and they're keeping it, they're keeping it in. I I look at this as therapy.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, that's what we do week in, week out.
SPEAKER_01Yes, you know, I I've told this story before, but I'll do it quickly here. Uh, June of 2012, I was at a different shop in Cincinnati, flew to New York, ran around, did some media, did a I guess a tweet, said, Hey, I'm in New York, and this uh this guy reached out on a DM, said, Hey, you're in my town, let's go to lunch. Now, this is it's kind of normal to do this now because you can't. I like how I called New York my town. You did, you did. And I was like, Who is this guy? I told my wife, like, she said, You really gonna go to lunch with this guy? I said, I think I will. I said, Well, probably pay, you know, like I'll risk it. He might kill me, but I might get free life out of the whole thing. And sure enough, we went to I always forget the name of the cobblestone road right by the New York Soccer Exchange. What's it called? Stone Street. Stone Street, thank you. We went to Stone Street, ate at that um uh the Mexican place, and uh we've been friends ever since June of 2012. So thank you uh for taking me out. And Sona and I ate on Stone Street just a few weeks ago. And um called me.
SPEAKER_00I feel like the next trip is to Kansas City to see the Chiefs, but that's true.
SPEAKER_01One more that only I would care about, and maybe that would get the markets. Um you travel a lot, and I joke when I go to a random town, I just ask JC, where should I go? Because you know every restaurant, you know every bar, you know everybody there. Uh, what's like your favorite town for like food, JC? Kyoto. Oh wow. Okay, why, dude?
SPEAKER_02Kyoto's the greatest place ever. Oh wow, like you call me right now, like JC, we got the jet off field up, where are we going? Anywhere in the world. Are you kidding me? We are going straight to Kyoto. Okay. Okay. Are you kidding me? What a great place, Kyoto. Like, I don't want to take anything away from Tokyo because Tokyo is the greatest place ever, and there's Kyoto is like smaller, so it's like it just I it makes me want to cry just thinking about it. Like, it is a special, special place, man. What a great place.
SPEAKER_00You know, I went to Japan about it's been about goodness, 20 years now, 20, 21 years, and I miss Kyoto. I went everywhere. I went to Sendai, Tokyo, Osaka, all these places. I miss Kyoto, and I still regret it. I want to go back with the family, and now from what you say, obviously that's a must.
SPEAKER_02And the Mediterranean, you know, you can find me. Uh, you know, if I'm in if I'm swimming in the Mediterranean, I'm something something right's happening that day. You know what I mean? Uh down in um like in Naxos or something like that, or down in like Saint Trope, Nice area. Definitely all that, uh, you know, Sicily, like downtower Mina in Sicily. Oh, what a great place. So, like that, you know, I like Japan and the Mediterranean is kind of like where I like to roll.
SPEAKER_00I have a question. You mentioned like managing money, I mean, for yourself, and then writing about it. And you know, we manage money too. And like I said, we were just having a debate just before this. I mean, you know, about momentum or uh all the volatility there, how to diversify. I feel like it's it look, uh, it's always up, you know, it's not easy managing money, to be clear. I feel especially now, it's you know, you can lean into all this AI stuff, you know, but then if it goes south, you get crushed, you know. But then you feel like you kind of have to write it. Or you could position for a rotation, you know, you could argue maybe that some of it is happening right now. But then if that AI thing continues, it's like, oh my god, I'm positioned for rotation, it didn't happen. You know, I've been crushed by momentum. Or, you know, and so from a relative basis, you know what I'm talking about, like relative to a benchmark, everyone's benchmark, even here, you know, managing money for other people, they're like, okay, you know, I've underperformed. Or, you know, you just go back to the benchmark, but now the benchmark leans into technology stocks, and you know, if technology goes stocks go south, then you lose money, period, right? On an absolute basis. Curious how you think about portfolio construction right now with all this happening, right? You mentioned that return dispersion, right? There's so much of dispersion. How do you position things to take a bunch of one versus the other or just to sort of protect yourself?
SPEAKER_02Well, that's just it, Sonum. I put myself, I'm in the position where I don't think about that at all, right? Because if these mega cap tech stocks are doing well and stuff like that, great, I'm in it, right? Like I don't have to think about that at all. I don't have a benchmark. My whole goal is to have uncorrelated strategies to that, right? And it it doesn't, it doesn't fall within this, like, oh, I have to beat this benchmark, right? We're looking for absolute returns in completely different ways. That's the whole point, right? So, you know, um uh the the whole holy grail adding additional layers, like Ray Dalio has the uh the can can have 15 different strategies, which he says is optimal. I don't think that's necessary to have 15, three, four, five. You know, that's manageable, and that is because after that you get the law of diminishing returns, right? Like that's where the real money is generated, having that. You don't need 15 because after the 14th strategy, like how much better, right? You know what I'm saying? So it's less of a benefit. So for me, that's the holy grail. And when you talk about diversification, it's not you're not sacrificing forward returns in favor of diversification. That's not what you're doing. Actually, it's the opposite. What you're doing by adding uncorrelated strategies to your portfolio is that you are lowering the volatility of that portfolio returns, and therefore the compounding accelerates and you make a lot more money faster, right? Which is once you understand that math, you look at the whole world differently.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, well said. No, absolutely. We were just talking about like managed future type strategies, adding to that, and you know, like it may not all go up at the same time, but then uh it doesn't have to outperform the SP to have a major impact on your portfolio. Absolutely.
SPEAKER_01No, totally. You mentioned Holy Grail, and I think I asked you this last time, but I want to take a different angle on it. You think about the holy grail of like technicians, right? Ralph A. Campora, we mentioned Luigi Mata, Katie Stockton, um, you know, who else is some big ones that they're looking at.
SPEAKER_02Edwards and McGee.
SPEAKER_01Edwards McGee, uh DeGraf, Charlie Dow, Chris Kimball, you know. So who are some young uh Ari Wald, I don't want to forget Ari. Uh who are some young up-and-comers? You follow a lot of people, obviously, on social media that probably most people haven't heard of, uh, that you think could be someone in 30 years is who this is a big time. Who's people you follow that no one knows about?
SPEAKER_02Um, you got Sam Gatlin, speaking of Kansas. Uh Kansas shoutouts today. Gotta be a new record on right on your podcast on Kansas mentions. I mean, man. So Sam Gatlin for sure. Um, Alfonso de Pablos. Uh he's over in Spain, speaking of Spain. Uh young guys uh that you'll be seeing a lot in the future. Like the young, young guys. I think Sam was like the youngest CMT ever, and I think Alfonso was too Ricardo Serra. Ricardo, Slick Rick. He's down in Mexico City.
SPEAKER_03Okay.
SPEAKER_02He's he's big time. I'm thinking the young, young guys I know. Okay. Um, yeah, those are probably the ones that I would I would lean in on. Yeah, Sam, the Fonz. There'll be there'll be more. There'll be more. Yeah.
SPEAKER_01And who else is on the um Mount Rushmore? We mentioned some. Who who I forget on the Mount Rushmore? People you've learned a lot from in your career.
SPEAKER_02Um, Ralph, Louise, Alan Shaw.
SPEAKER_01Alan Shaw, yeah.
SPEAKER_02Alan Shaw for short. Uh James Bartolone.
SPEAKER_01Oh yeah.
SPEAKER_02Um Connie Brown, who just passed, uh, which is a bummer. Um, I'm a big Charlie Dow fan. Leonardo Fibonacci da Pisa.
SPEAKER_01Yeah.
SPEAKER_02Shout out to Big L.
SPEAKER_01Um Well, John Murphy, he passed also. So I know you're a John Murphy guy. I'm a John Murphy disciple.
SPEAKER_02Huge John Murphy disciple for sure. Uh, my understanding he wasn't doing, we hadn't seen him for a while. No, we haven't. Yeah. Um, but I am a true John Murphy disciple. Read all the books, then stop, read them again. Big Edwards and McGee disciple. Like all of that plays, plays hard still to this day. And then more recent, you know, de Graff, um, John Roke. Uh John Roque. Uh, love John. Just spoke to him a couple days ago, actually. Um, and then I like all the strategist guys Varone, Sone, like those guys a lot. Clifton, Clifton's the man.
SPEAKER_01Yeah.
SPEAKER_02Ari Wald.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, Ari for sure.
SPEAKER_02Ari Wald's gotta be in there for sure. Does great work, a lot of good guys.
SPEAKER_00Oh, yeah.
unknownOkay.
SPEAKER_00Speaking of DeGraf, I wanted to bring out I I I saw DeGraf's note from this morning, and he was talking about, he's been talking about like momentum, you know, being in a worrying state since April, actually. So late April, I think. So he's saying his note was about SP ETFs and features seeing excessive inflows and large net long positioning by speculators, which he said is not a big problem, but he talks about that being a bit of a problem in the face of weakness. So he talks about inflows into queues and SMH ETFs, despite this momentum unwind. He's saying basically the bulls are emboldened by weakness and by the dip and things like that. Instead of usually sentiment just follows returns, returns go down, sentiment goes down, but he's saying we're not seeing that, that can be a bit of an issue.
SPEAKER_02Curious how you're, you know, like do you buy into that or you I've tried, man, for years and years to try to understand ETF flow. I got nothing. I got nothing. I tried, I swear to god, I've tried. I I can't. I can't figure out like how to use it to my benefit. So I got nothing. I mean, your guess is good as mine. You know? Yeah, no, I we I was reading you. I call Todd something and I'm like, hey Todd, right? That's what I do, or like Balchunis or something like that. I'll be like, hey, right? Like, I don't know, man. I've tried. It's I I think that there's I think there's better data for what I'm trying to accomplish elsewhere than ETF flows. And maybe I'm just like dumb and I can't figure it out. Maybe that's certainly possible. Ask my wife. Uh, I just I don't know. Uh I I just haven't been able to crack that code where I could say, hey, this is really helpful for me.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I'm in the same camp. I look at the flows. I feel like it should help somehow. Reach out. I have no idea what to make of it. That I'm reading the graph. I'm actually meeting Todd. Well, this episode's gonna come out on Wednesday, right, Ryan? So it's yeah. So yeah, Wednesday evening is I'm having dinner with Todd. So Todd Son?
SPEAKER_02Yeah.
SPEAKER_00Todd Son. Yeah.
SPEAKER_02So tell him I said JC says to ask you.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, when I I hung out with Todd last summer, I got him ice cream. Ask him about that. That was a fun, fun day. We did we actually did a uh live spaces from an ice cream shop in Cincinnati. We had fun. JC, this has been awesome. We obviously are uh big fans of you. We're nearing the end, unfortunately. Uh thanks everyone who listens to these podcasts. Give us a like, give us a follow, give us a positive review, give us a negative review. We cannot have lead the witness. Feel free and mention um anything that JC said you liked or didn't like in the YouTube comments. We like those comments for those algorithms. From a social media, I didn't know I was gonna ask you, JC, until right this second. From a social media point of view, you've been extremely successful. You mentioned you started with a blog in 2010. It probably wouldn't even call blogs back then. I said I was doing podcasts before they were called podcasts. I was doing blogs before they were called blogs. You've leveraged social media a lot to be very successful. What is the number one thing you think some young person should do to leverage social media to be successful at it?
SPEAKER_02Yeah, you know, it's it's a great way to show off your work and there are people watching. And think of it kind of like your portfolio, where like if you're like an artist, you have like these like you know, painting or whatever, or you're like a video guy, you have like these video documentaries that you've shot or whatever. Like, think about your portfolio, you know, and there's people watching because I could tell you as somebody who has, you know, hired and you know, employed people for a long, long time from all over the world, you know, these are these are kids that are getting their CMT, they're still in high school, they're passing CMT exams already. And they're like, JC, how do you find these guys? It's like they find me. That's the whole point. They find me. I uh they're like, JC, you are the best at like cultivating and finding it. I'm like, Straza told me to hire this guy. I don't know what to tell you. He's how he's great, you know. You know, like, you know, it it it it and it's and it's true, you know, because I put myself out there and I share my work. So, you know, people who are looking for opportunities who are putting out great work, somehow we find each other. The algorithms really help. Um, you know, don't don't grow up to be one of these angry people, you know, like you see them out there on Twitter every day, whether they're complaining about some war or they're complaining about the president. It's like it's so depressing, right? Like you're just making people around you depressed. Like you're like Debbie Downer on SNL. Like, you know, that that's not you're not making it easy for people to work with you. You're not making it easy for people to be friends with you. Like sad, angry people on social media, like you want to distance yourself from those types of people. So don't end up the old angry guy, is kind of like a good uh, you know, and then be very grateful, right? You know, looking for opportunities out there. I mean, I love you know Twitter because I've been able to meet so many friends, right? I met all of them on Twitter, literally. All these finance, all these connections that I have. I met them on social media, and um, you know, be open to meeting people, IRL, like what Ryan was talking about, how I DM'd him. I slipped into his DMs and went on a live date to some a little bromance uh down Stone Street, no big deal, no Mexican bromance. And um, you know, we had a great and we're friends ever since, obviously. And we've like out a million times since then, right? And I can tell you countless stories that are kind of similar, but they're happy hours or dinners or whatever or event or something like that. And you know, the relationships are really what makes it uh awesome being able to learn from people, have I uh great idea flow, and Twitter has done a great job at like now taking the cash tags and then having the whole conversation around that particular ticker symbol and having everything in one place. So if you see why a stock is rising or falling, you could see on Twitter how it's rising and falling. YouTube's been a great benefit um to be able to consume content. I I pretty much just watch YouTube for the most part, personally. So, you know, I to me that's what social media is. YouTube and and Twitter is probably where it's at.
SPEAKER_01Um well, that was awesome. Um, one more time. So you write um everybody's wrong. I don't know if it's daily, but many times a week. Every day, baby. That's what I thought every day. So you write that. You obviously have the uh the morning show every day. You do a Stra Straza, most days. Tell us one more time where people can find those and how to sign up for them.
SPEAKER_02Go to trendlabs.com. You can sign up for everybody's wrong because, in my experience, uh the group, the consensus is wrong on something at all times. So it's about finding where that vulnerability is for a massive, massive unwind. And so that's what we're talking about every day on everybody's wrong is looking for those opportunities. And uh, I manage two public portfolios, a third one coming soon, uh, that I've been dying to launch a small cap portfolio. Uh, that's where big, big money is made. You go around and and and talk to the old timers, talk to people who've been around 40, 50 years and ask them about their biggest winners ever. And you're gonna find that they come from small and mid-cap stocks. There's my challenge for all of you. And so uh I've recognized that over the years, so I'll be launching another one. So, all that at Trend Labs, come hang out with me. Uh, I'm very lonely here. If I hadn't have a community to talk to every day, I'd be I'd go crazy. I'd go crazy. So I need it. So come join me.
SPEAKER_00You and us both, but I do have one last thing I still have on my list of things to do. Get you together with Dietrich and take Dietrich out for Indian food sometime.
SPEAKER_02Okay, yeah, let's go. Mumbai is one of my favorite places in the world. We're talking about Kyoto and the Mediterranean. I love, love Mumbai, absolutely love it.
SPEAKER_00And you can line all the way there, but someday it's the way it's right, yes.
SPEAKER_02Food in BKC, go all the way downtown. Let's go, man. Let's go. Why don't we just go to Bombay? The three of us. You should go.
SPEAKER_00I'm all for it.
SPEAKER_02What are you gonna eat American Indian food? You're gonna eat that garbage? Let's go get the real thing, man. Dude, let me tell you something. First time I went to India, I've been to India a whole bunch of times and learned my lesson. First time I went to India, I I knew they didn't have meat, right? But I didn't truly process it. I was there for like a week. I was literally, I would have murdered somebody for a cheeseburger. Like I was shaking. I did not realize how I was like, oh, I could eat fish every night in my life. No, I cannot. No, I cannot. My body, and then I'm in the airport and I see a Burger King. I'm like, oh my God, it's a Burger King. This is the greatest day of my life. I'm running over there. I'm gonna miss my flight. I'm like, I don't care, it's worth it. I get to the Burger King, I'm like, you don't have any meat? It's Burger King. No meat. I'm like, oh my god. So every time I go to India, ever since that first experience, every day for a week or two weeks, just burgers and ribeys all day, every day. Burgers and ribeis so that you're sick in India and you can go eat everything else. That's the trick. Let's go.
SPEAKER_01In. In. Well, just avoid the lettuce of Taco Bell. That's my disclaimer as we start.
SPEAKER_02Anybody who tells me, Oh, I got sick of Taco Bell, you deserved it. Sorry.
SPEAKER_01Right. Yeah.
SPEAKER_02Who eats a Taco Bell? Like be an adult.
SPEAKER_01Yeah. I mean, I'll double check. My boys very well might have ordered food from Taco Bell with that door dash they got about 40 minutes ago.
SPEAKER_02$47 for Taco Bell.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, maybe that's not what they got. I don't know what they got. They're probably five guys. They love five guys. I mean, let me I can look real fast. Let me see here. What else, JC? What are you watching? Let's let's wrap this up about a minute. What else you're watching out there? What should we know about?
SPEAKER_02You know, consumer discretionary down in the dumps, man. Uh, down in the dumps. If you recall, financials were kind of down in the dumps not too long ago, healthcare down in the dumps not too long ago. Um, you know, so I'm looking at that. Uh, I got crack spreads on my eye. I don't know if you guys have been uh looking at the cracks spreads.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, those are being, you know, upgrading refining margins.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, so I'll leave you with that. You know, uh, for those of you who don't know what the crack spread is, let me school you, okay? Because I, some of us were around 20 years ago, the last time these things mattered, right? So we remember. See, the older you are, the more cycles you go through, the more things you learn about random stocks. So it's called a crack spread because they crack the molecules, right? And they turn them into usable energy fuels. So you think about it like an apple pie stand, right? You buy the apples, you make apple pies, and you sell the pies. If you could buy the apples for 30 bucks and you can sell the pies for 80 bucks, now you're making 50 bucks. Now all of a sudden you can sell the pies for a hundred bucks, 120 bucks, now you're making more money. So what's gonna happen? You're gonna go buy more apples so you can make more apple pies, right? So that's how it works in energy. These refining companies buy the apples, they buy the crude oil, right? And then they crack the molecules and turn them into gasoline and you know, other energy sources, right? So they're essentially buying more apples because they're making so much money selling the gasoline. So they're buying more uh gas, right? So that's why the crack spread, how much money these refiners are making, how much money the apples stay, apple pie stand is making, that increases the demand for the apples, that increases the demand for the energy. So it tends to be a leading indicator for oil. You're seeing the uh refining stocks obviously doing great, Valero, Philip 66, all these things doing fantastic. And you know, that's they've been a relative leader for a long time. And with these crack spreads blowing out, they're just making more money. They're just printing this stuff.
SPEAKER_00And you know, it's interesting because you know, just for everyone listening, the pump price that you see, it's not all oil prices, it's about 50% oil prices, but a good bit, you know, a quarter of it is actually crack spreads. It's that refining margin that is also adding to pump prices, right? So it's not just oil's up, but then you have to look at what crack spreads, these refining margins, gasoline, diesel, are doing as well.
SPEAKER_02And then, of course, when prices are going up, you know, they're very quick to raise prices at the gas pump. And then when prices go down, magically they they just take their sweet little time. It's amazing how that happens.
SPEAKER_01Rockets and feathers. Yes. Um, they answered the age of the question. It was Chick-fil-A. My kids ordered Chick-fil-A, they they get that all the time.
SPEAKER_02Dude, you know, these chicken biscuits are only for breakfast. Did you know that this is a breakfast uh thing for uh chicken people?
SPEAKER_01Well, I don't know.
SPEAKER_02They eat chicken sandwiches for breakfast. I just learned this like a year ago.
SPEAKER_00Kids must have just woken up or something, but chicken sandwiches for breakfast.
SPEAKER_02That's aggressive.
SPEAKER_01That's a weird one. Yeah, that's uh chicken and waffles are always good. But listen, um JC, this was awesome. We are huge fans of you. Thank you for joining again. Uh, episode 197 of Facts versus Feelings, JC Pratt's returns. I think that's what we'll call it. That's a pretty good title, I think. Um, all right, JC. Any last words? Last words of wisdom that we are going to sign off for real. What do you want to tell all of the people?
SPEAKER_02You know, it it's hard, it's hard out there uh to make money. It always has been, it always will be. You know, there are people that are having a harder time than you. You don't know what's going on in their lives, right? Um, people are always sitting out there angry all the time and you know, calling people out for making a mistake or saying something wrong, or you know, talking about foreign policy and government decisions, like you're in the room and you have all the information, like you know anything, like you know, there's a certain element of gratitude, you know, they say scientifically that you can't be grateful and then have anger and anxiety at the same time, like scientifically in your mind, right? So if you're constantly striving to find reasons to be grateful, and I mean I have an unlimited amount of reasons to be grateful to my kids, my health, and my family. I mean, I'm good, right? So, like I think about those things, even on a bad day. You know, I'm sitting there having you know a glass of cavernet, eating my ribeye, you know, helping my kids eat their food, having a nice dinner. Like, you know, those are the moments, right? Like that's that's really what it's all about. And you go back and you know, fight another day and go get them on the next day. And that's all that's all it is. So just gratitude, I think, is it's a really, really, really uh, you know, powerful weapon to you know attack the world with.
SPEAKER_01Love it. There is no better way to end the latest episode of Facts vs. Feelings. JC, thank you as always. Uh Sonu, thanks to you for a great discussion and thanks to you, all the listeners. We'll be back next week. We'll see you right then. Take care. Thank you. Adios. Information provided on Facts versus Feelings with Sonovar Geeks and Ryan Dietrich are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. The statements and opinions of Joe Guest may not be reflective of CWM LLC or its affiliates. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All industries are unmanaged and may not be invested in directly. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. To determine what may be appropriate for you, consult with your attorney, accountant, financial, or tax advisor prior to investing. Guests on facts versus feelings are not affiliated with CWM LLC.
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